Chapter One: Bozeman or Bust (lots of bust)
I had done it once again, like so many other years before, by traveling north to one of the harshest and coldest states that a hobo could possibly go to during the dead of winter, late-January 2021: Mon-fucking-tana. Or as the locals jokingly say, "Montucky". (edit: Shout-out to Montucky Cold Snacks, the cheap horse-piss watered down beer that is Montana's equivalent of Washington's "Rainier Ale" or Oregon's "Session Lager"). I digress.
If I was a goose, I'd surely be the Jonathan Livingston Seagull of the flock…the black sheep shitshow of a goose flying in the completely wrong direction at the worst time of the year. As forementioned, this was not the first time, nor second time, that I've done this. In fact, it's become a habit, if not straight-up routine.
Laramie, Wyoming circa November 2016. Glendive, Montana circa January 2015 Minot, North Dakota circa January 2014. Yukon, Canada circa November 2013. Bellingham, Washington circa January 2006. The list goes on, and on, and on…
And here I am. Bozeman Fucking Montana, circa January-February 2021. The locals say it's an unusually warm winter, which by Montana's standards might include 5 inches of snow in the afternoon and temperatures dropping below 10F degrees at night. However, according to the high standards of a low-class hobo born and raised on the Gulf Coast of Alabama, this weather is colder than a witches tit.
Now, that's not to say that I ain't prepared though. I assure you that I am. Sixteen years of living on the road and rails has made this black goose a well-seasoned bird, with all the trimmings. I have a military sleeping bag that can keep me alive down to negative 30 temperatures. My military backpack is waterproof, and so are the snowboarding pants that I wear under my insulated Carharrt overalls. I have alpaca wool thermal pants, merino wool socks, thermolite waterproof boots, thinsulated gloves, and several wool and polyster beanie hats. My dual-layer mountaineering tent can withstand hurricane-force winds and all the snow that a blizzard can muster.
Winter? Montana? Bring it bitch. Hit me with your best shot. You know I like it. wink
Sigh. However, DESPITE the freezing temperatures and shit tons of snow, there's a lil secret that I've learned during my many years of traveling, and that secret is certainly DUE to these wintery conditions: Jobs! Lots and lots and lots and lots of jobs! Jobs here, jobs there, jobs every-fucking-where. Hotel jobs, restaurant jobs, retail jobs, construction jobs, maintenance jobs, driving jobs, even jobs just to help other people get more damn jobs!
You want a job during winter? Well they got jobs out northern Californie way, Oregonie way, Montanie way, Washingtonie way, North and South Dakotie way, and every which way can go above above the Mason-Dixon line!
If you can't find a damn job in the Northwestern United States of America during winter, you ain't fucking looking, and that's a fact. If you got one arm and you can swing a hammer, or punch a number on a cash register, then consider yourself hired on the spot and you can start today.
Before this chapter turns into an entire damn book of its own (A Hobo's Guide to Finding Jobs) let's get back to the story here: Bozeman or Bust.
As I begin this chapter, I have a red-wine hangover that is enough to drive me to a bullet in the head. I made a pot of coffee only to puke it back up on my hands and knees in front the porcelain thrown. I think it was good ole Earnest Hemingway that once said "Write Drunk, Edit Sober". Experienced words of wisdom from a fine man that knew everything a man could possibly know about drinking shit tons of wine and writing shit tons of stories. I wouldn't be lying if I was to confess that Mr. Hemingway, along with Mr. Steinbeck and Mr. Twain, are drunken heroes of mine that I could only hope someday to sit alongside in the bookstores of Hell and Hades with a gallon of cheap Merlot. Salut, gentleman.
After puking, rolling cigarettes, drinking coffee, and puking several times more, I was finally able to sit down to try and remember what-the-fuck happened yesterday; a solemn meditation technique that involves tons of coffee and contemplation; a time to worship the asinine achievements that are accompanied in both rejoice and regret.
Yesterday started off sober as a saint. I had a job interview at this place I had found on craigslist, some place looking for fresh warm bodies to fill up their production-assembly line. I took a bus to the address they had given me, which ended up being the adress to the Bozeman City Bank.
"A bank?", I thought, as I wondered around the parking lot dumbfounded and confused for a solid 5 minutes, checking the address several times on my phone, wondering why on earth I've been sent to a state bank. After circling the parking lot, I noticed a door on the side of the bank that said "Job Choices Employment Services: Second Floor".
Godammit. I had been fucking conned. Fucking craigslist. I know what's going on here…this a goddamn employment agency that wants to take 10-15 percent of my paycheck, take away my rights to healthcare and benefits, in the so-called promise of finding me a "great career path of opportunity".
Employment agencies. Just like rats. The only "opportunity" here was them: Creatures of opportunity, parasites hellbent on scavaging peoples money and benefits. "A not-even-close-to-great career path of 9-5 slave-labor bullshit involving years of suckling away your mind, body, and spirit", the sign on the door should have read.
This was definitely a mistake. And anyone that has ever had the unfortunate pleasure of being with me can you tell one thing about me: I fucking love mistakes. I love making them, and I love learning from them. I am a walking-talking connoisseur of mistakes. In fact, I just made a mistake trying to spell connoisseur, so I asked Google "Hey Google, spell connoisseur", and due to lack of interpreting my Alabama accent, Google made the mistake of showing me the word Coitus. I have now learned that the word "coitus" is another word for sex. As a writer and the son of an English teacher, I love learning new words. As a human male, I love sex. So learning a new word for "sex" is a fantastic trade-off for that fortunate mistake!
I digress.
I decided to walk into the bank, up the stairs to the second floor, and down the hall to the employment agency. A well-dressed and very sexy debutant by the name of Tracy stood up and greeted me with a smile that was formal, professional, and admittedly very sexy.
While my dirty mind started playing cheap porn music, along with vivid images of me and Tracy wrecking that office like wild alleycats, I was suddenly snapped back into reality with Tracy's sexy voice, saying:
"Hey, you must be Mr. Huck! Are you here for the 3:00 o'clock interview? Could you please start by filling out this application? You can have a seat over at the desk here"…
Godammit. This employment agency was GOOD. I was Tracy's submissive little slut. I walked right where Tracy told me to walk, sat right in the chair Tracy pulled out for me to sit in, and I started filling out the application with the ballpoint pen that Tracy had somehow put in my hand without me even realizing it. Tracy could have stolen my wallet and the 11 dollars inside of it as well, had she wanted to, and I wouldn't have even noticed. And even if I had noticed, I would have let her do it anyway. Godammit!
As I started to fill out the application, I got to the section I dreaded most: job references. Oh boy…allow me to tell you a little about Huck's references, or lacktherof:
At my last job, I was fired because of a fight that broke-out between my ex-girlfriend and myself, which began with lots of shouting and shoving, and ended with me getting a black-eye from being punched in the face twice. Fun fact: Italian women are fiery as they are fierce, and bold as they are beautiful. And just like their male Italian counterparts, such as Sylvester Stalone or Al Capone, they know how to land a solid right jab. This fight erupted in the worker's dormitory for all employees to hear and see. And although I was the one with the swollen black eye, I was the one they decided to fire. C'est la vie, such is life. Que sera sera, it be what it fucking be.
We can scratch that job off as a reference, without a doubt.
The job before that, I was at a marijuana farm called "Great American Cannabis", in which my managers and co-workers tried to recruit me into a far-right group of sexist and racist baboons called "The Proud Boys".
There was a pre-determining factor in why that farm had hired me, and assumed I would be interested in their idealogical gang. That pre-determing factor was the very same factor that led Google to teaching me the wrong word and definition: my Alabama accent.
Great American Cannabis had hired me based on a phone interview, in which they assumed my southern accent indicated two things, in which case one of their assumptions was right, and one was wrong:
Assumption Numero Uno: Huck has an Alabama accent, which therefore indicates that he has years of experience working on farms, growing plants, and being an honest and hard-worker.
Assumption Numero Dos: Huck has an Alabama accent, therefore he must be idealogically aligned with far-right beliefs including sexism and racism.
Welp, I am proud to say that even that although a 50% winning percentage may be fine and dandy with gambling in Vegas, and can be seen as half full or half empty based on however optimisitic or pessimistic you might be, in the case of Great American Cannabis and The Proud Boys, those odds ended pretty badly.
As it turns out, despite being raised by a racist father and surrounded by bigotry in the not-so-sweet home of Alabama, those very dispositions made this black sheep child rebel from such ass-backward beliefs, and I am staunchly pro-civil rights, which means I am pro-immigration, and a proud supporter of the sufferage movement for womens right.
Obviously, that did not go very well with my co-workers at the farm, and I was fired within the first month. But wait, theres more tragic humor to the story of this farm, which I'll organize in two keypoints:
Keypoint Numero Uno: The farm was owned by Iranian immigrants. I…shit…you…not. That's right. YOU DID READ THAT CORRECTLY. Not only was the farm owned and managed by a minority group of immigrants, those very immigrants came directly from the very country is at the VERY TOP of White-America's shitlist: Iran.
Keypoint Numeros Dos: After I was fired based almost entirely according to my leftist and progressive views on race and gender equality, within just a couple of weeks nearly everybody on the farm was fired and replaced by cheaper immigrant labor in the form of Laotian women. That's right…a white-blooded American-born legal-working male, was replaced by brown-blooded, foreign-born, mostly-illegal-working females, on a farm owned and managed by right-wing racists and sexists that were anti-immigration. Once again, I…shit…you…fucking…not...let THAT shit sink in.
I literally cannot make this shit up, and let it be forever proof that reality, however tragic or ironic it may be, is far greater than fiction. You can write that last sentence in a letter, shove that puppy in an envelope, slap that bitch with a stamp, and mail it to the fucking MOON. Or you can mail it to Iran, or Laos, whichever you prefer.
However, I digress.
So, being that I was fired from Great American Cannabis by a bunch of Iranian Proud Boys, you can scratch that job off of the "reference" list as well. Sigh.
So, how about the job before that? Well, that's a hell of a story too, but I'll make it quick and cut shorter to the chase:
I worked on a fishing boat for a Mormon captain. Although I loved him like a Dad, and he often treated me like a son, my job ended in these words:
"Huck, I really like you. You're one of the hardest working deckhands I've ever had, despite it being a very terrible year for fishing. However, as a man that is a Latter Day Saint of God, as a Mormon, I'm going to have to ask you to leave because of three reasons:
1) You smoke cigarettes, marijuana, and drink alcohol and coffee.
2) You curse worse than a sailor.
3) You are an atheist/agnostic."
And in case you, the reader did not know: Mormons HATE cigarettes, marijuana, alcohol, AND coffee. They are forbidden to curse, and they are not even allowed to tolerate the company of anyone that isn't a believer in God.
Well Godammit. How in the hell am I so goddamn misfortunate and unlucky, to be the must FIRST FUCKING PERSON in the entire HISTORY OF FISHING, that has gotten fired for using curse words and drinking whiskey. I couldn't even absorb the fact that my boss was firing me because I couldn't get over the fact that I was possibly the first sailor or fisherman in all of ocean-faring humanity that had gotten fired for doing what sailors and fisherman are guaranteed and known to do best: drinkin' and cursin'
We can also scratch THAT job off the possible reference list as well.
It was at this point in the office of Job Choices Bozeman that the porn music had long since stopped playing in my head, and that I suddenly and swiftly fell deeply into a full blown existential crisis right there in Tracy's office while simply trying to think of a single reference from my last 3 jobs. The unbelievable amount of misfortune, tragedy, irony, and utter insanity of my last 3 job experiences had truly started to sink in, and I was beginning to legitimately lose my temporary grasp on sanity along with my faith in humanity altogether in one great, big, sloppy sandwich of existential fucking crisis.
Allow me to self-diagnose this existential crisis sandwich by peeling off some of the layers of this enormous stinking onion that is in the middle of it all: Either that curse that was put on me a few years ago by a Mexican trainhopping gypsy from New Orleans is proof that curses are indeed fucking real, or either I am the unluckiest son of a bitch on this entire planet that is so very unlucky that I am slowly (or quickly) coming to the conclusion that this entire life is a simulation that is programmed by some sick comedic asshole that specializes in the tragedies of both irony AND misfortune. And though some people in this world call that programmer God or Allah or Jehovah, I call him Jeff. I call him "Jeff in Programming", with same amount of disdain and hatred that Michael Scott refers to "Toby in Human Resources" in the American version of the show "The Office".
(Sidenote: If you do not understand my last reference because you have not watched The Office, then you need to stop reading this book right now, go sign up for one month of Netflix, and spend that entire month binge-watching one of the greatest sitcoms ever made in the history of television: The Office (US Version). Go. Now!)
I digress.
As I collapsed into a full-blown existential crisis while thinking of job references on the second floor employment services office above Montana State Bank, my fantasy-based relationship with Tracy was also about to crumble into an existential crisis as well, based on two very important qualities:
Quality Numero Uno: Tracy and I had no relationship that actually existed outside of my head and a stupid job application form. We had never knocked over all of the filing cabinets, water-cooler, or broken the copying machine with tantric sex. That scenario never existed period.
Quality Numeros Dos: I was about to not only lie, but also commit non-existent adultery to Tracy, thus putting a very real end to a not-very-real relationship.
I stood up from the desk that me and Tracy had never fucked on, and I told Tracy that I had to use the bathroom. And though I did really have to use the bathroom, it wasn't for the purpose of pissing or taking a shit, it was for the purpose of throwing the application in the toilet and sneaking my way down the hallway and out of the employment agency. In which case, that is precisely what I did.
Upon stepping out of the door and back into the parking lot of Bozeman City Bank, I noticed another hot little woman across the street: A dazzling red-headed freckle-faced damsel by the name of Wendy, who promised in her fertile bosom the birth of two-dollar cheeseburgers and loaded baked potatoes. I went inside Wendy's house, and began to have an oral relationship by penetrating my mouth with nearly everything that was offered on Wendy's dollar-value menu.
Stop here, acquire coffee, booze, and cigarettes until I feel like writing again, which may be later tonight, tomorrow morning, or possibly fucking never

How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.

​
Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.
Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.
Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system.
The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.
In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work.
The Real-Life Ewings
Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame.
Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks.
For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.”
Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver.
The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since.
In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973.
Hard Money
The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar.
Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980.
Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere.
For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing.
📷

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; chart by Priceonomics

As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand.
And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market.
But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators.
Soy Before Silver
In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year.
A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price.
While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short).
When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States.
To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market.
In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit.
Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely.
In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.”
“That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.”
📷

The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit: Jeremy Kemp

Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000.
Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision.
“Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press.
Silver Thursday
Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position.
By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply.
Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York.
📷

Source: New York Times

But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork.
“In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.”
According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver.
Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver.
“The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.”
In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it.
This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses.
At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts.
Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range.
Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver.
On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount.
The Aftermath
After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,.
The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled.
Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980)
📷

Source: Trading Economics

In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.”
The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market.
Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point.
Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right.
“Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.”
Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver.
Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense.
“They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another.
p.s. credit to Ben Christopher
​

Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for.
Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league.
Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain.
Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith.
Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course.
Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season.
Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside.
Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage.
Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina.
Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly.
Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years.
Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City.
Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks.
Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021.
Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come.
Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here.
Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense.
Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas.
Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term.
Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb.
Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts.
Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn?
Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.

Green Bay Packers

Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers.
Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline.
Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.

Houston Texans (4-12)

Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence.
Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild.
Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard.
Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop.
Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short.
Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack.
Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes.
Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas.
Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co.
Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store.
Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level.
Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move.
Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him.
Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move.
Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back,
Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings.
Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop.
Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.

New England Patriots (7-9)

Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB.
Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential.
Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.

New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger.
Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.

New York Giants (6-10)

Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants.
Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall.
Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.

New York Jets (2-14)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview.
Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly.
Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory.
Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to.
Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over.
Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere.
Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run.
Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market.
Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen.
Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold.
Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher.
Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB.
Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.

Washington Football Team (7-9)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division.
Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved.
Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.

It had been centuries since the Luddite Wars but the scars across the badlands had still not fully healed. Twisted spires of half melted rock loomed over glass smooth craters pockmarking a desert of orange sand. Sand that had formed from the rust and decay of thousands of tons of burning steel from long abandoned cities. Though rarer now, sometimes the winds would uncover a new pocket of irradiated debris and scour the barren lands with a new wave of radiation. But, other than a few isolated pockets, the battered and scabbed land - bitter and sterile though it was - no longer could be said to be lethal within hours of entering it. Still, with its nightmarish hellscape and it's metal laced grit battering anyone foolish enough to enter, the area more than earned its moniker of Damnation among the survivors. It was said that only a great fool or a madman would ever ride out into Damnation. The sight of just such a rider emerging from a cloud of rust colored sand caused a stir of dread to pass through those that manned the Wall that day.
Still too distant to make out details even with use of the periscope. In wilder days when the winds were still fierce and still hot with radioactive winds a brave soul might have volunteered or been coerced into exposing themselves from the protection offered by the wall to Damnation and venture on top to use a spyglass. But, as the centuries passed and the desert cooled both the Keepers and the Wall itself succumbed to the ravages of time. The sixteen meter tall line of concrete and steel that stretched from horizon to horizon was now just a stained and crumbling shadow of its former glory. Gaps showing exposing the rebar underneath were evident on both sides but, for now at least, the Wall still held. As for the Keepers themselves? That profession which was once viewed as a vital part of the defense of the remnants of humanity had gradually suffered its own form of social erosion. From a respected job to one that was used as a prison sentence to a refugee camp for society's outcasts. The current Keepers were little more than scavengers attempting to carve out their own niche from the scant protection offered by the Wall. So, they contented themselves to observing the stranger through the narrow eyepieces of the periscopes. Watching and waiting.
The stranger was garbed in a fashion appropriate for desert travel. That is to say with no exposed skin and a full face breathing apparatus. The stranger's long coat and wide brimmed hat both appeared to have once been black but had long since been stained orange by the clouds of dust. Gloved hands gripped the reins of the horse tightly while glassy lensed eyes stared straight ahead while a tube extended from the mask to a chest mounted purification unit. He sat stiffly with no wasted movements and seemingly to sit impossibly still atop the saddle. If not for his upright stance and subtle adjustments to the horse's pace as it navigated the uneven terrain, he might have been mistaken for a dead man. The man was obviously still alive. The horse, however, was not.
As the rider and his mount grew closer it became more and more evident that the horse was, in fact, quite dead. The eyes were gone and were now just hollow pits. Bone could be seen jutting out from the rotting flesh along the nose and exposing a bone in one foreleg and part of the ribs along the chest. Blackened rips along the horse's flank were evident where the flesh had ruptured during putrefaction and fluids now weeped from these open sores. Still, the horse walked. Stiffly and mechanically as if it's decaying flesh had somehow been stretched over an automaton. In a sense, that is exactly what had happened.
"Necromancer," Bri of the Evening Watch swore.
"Are you certain?" Vict asked without bothering to rise from his seat. VIct wore the copper badge used to identify a sheriff. The Wall had long since abandoned the position of sheriff, but not the badge. It was now used to identify the First among the Keepers. A position that Vict had held well into his gray haired years. Positively ancient in Wall terms. One day he knew his reflexes would slow and the hand or knife of some upstart would claim his badge. But, for now, Vict's rule had been a successful one. The few crops that would grow near the wall were plentiful and the people in the Wall were thriving as well as could be expected. They had successfully defended themselves from rival Wall tribes that had seized control of their own gates and, as much as was feasible considering the environs of living within the Wall, his people were content. Vict was considered a strong leader. A wise leader. His gray hairs were a testament to that and as long as he did not make mistakes he would be allowed to grow new ones. For now. "His mount is dead," Bri clarified, "It has been ravaged by the desert already. I do not think anything more than proximal arcana could be keeping it going now."
Vict nodded and, finally, arose from the crudely constructed chair to don his own duster. He disliked walking out on the Damnation side of the wall. But confronting this stranger was his duty as First. But, no need to do so alone.
"Can you tell if he's armed?"
"Not yet," Bri admitted, "The light is bad and he is wearing dark clothing. I think there is an electro-rifle on his saddle but he may have a sidearm as well."
"Good enough," Vict said, "We'll assume he is. Summon the others. I want at least six men joining me at the gate. And bring the coil guns with you."
"Those haven't worked in decades, Vict."
"No need to let him know that," Vict remarked as he donned his hat, "We'll just keep that as a surprise for him."
"On it," Bri said with a grin as he scurried off down the corridor towards the living quarters beyond. Some members of the Watch may need to be woken up, Vict knew. The Watch was rarely called upon these days and some had probably long since forgotten what their shift may actually involve. Only a handful, like Bri, were still diligent enough to show up to perform the most minimum of duties. It was a distressing trend but one that Vict himself knew no way of stopping. People guarded the wall from threats along the corridors and from the goodlands. No one cared to stare into the interior.
Vict sauntered towards the door that opened out into the tunnel of the Gate. He soon found himself standing before the massive doors that served as the final barrier between him and Damnation. Fifty meters behind him were doors that opened up into the Goodlands. Those doors they kept ajar most of the day to allow for ventilation. The doors before him had not been opened in years. He wondered if the mechanisms still worked.
He heard the Watch assemble behind him and, without looking to count their numbers or verify they were even dressed and presentable, he signaled the doorman to activate the giant motors that would ease open the doors. It took several minutes for a crack large enough to admit a man on horseback to open. As the doors swung out and away from him, Vict marched forward. He heard the others following him.
The metallic tang of the desert of Damnation stung his nostrils as he edged closer to the boundary of the badlands. As the gap widened the man and the dead horse came into view.
"That's far enough!" Vict shouted.
To his surprise, not to mention considerable relief, the horse stopped short and the motionless rider did not reach for a weapon. Madness was unpredictable after all. He should not expect a reasoned response from a man performing an unreasonable action.
The rider sat there upon his dead horse and, presumably, studied Vict and the Watch. If he was intimidated by their presence he gave no outward sign of it. Slowly, the man lifted one hand away from the reins and reached towards himself. Vict tensed for a moment but relaxed when he saw the hand was not reaching for a holster but rather angling for the respiration unit on the chest. The stranger flipped a switch to activate the speaker. So, he just wanted to talk. That was encouraging.
"I am looking for someone," the stranger's distorted voice crackled from the speaker, "Did another rider come through here some time ago?"
"No," Vict answered.
"Are you certain?" the rider asked, "It would have been many months ago. I can provide a description."
"These gates have not been opened over ten years," Vict clarified, "He didn't come this way."
The rider cocked his head to one side and then seemed to take in the expanse of the wall slowly.
"Perhaps another gate, then?" he asked, "Do you communicate with the other gates?"
Vict shook his head.
"The tribe that took the next gate isn't exactly friendly to our cause," he explained, "The gates further down the line? They may be more neighborly but it's a long walk to find out."
"I see," the rider said, "Then may I request passage through your gate?"
"Are you here to start trouble?"
"Yes," the man replied.
Vict blinked in surprise. He had expected madness, certainly, but being honest about it was new.
"Don't see as to how it benefits me to allow that then," Vict declared. He then motioned back towards the desert,
"Turn around the way you came."
"I can pay the toll if there is one," the stranger offered.
An intriguing offer, actually. Vict almost considered it. Good coin could be valuable in trade with the cityfolk. Still, if they found out he let trouble in then the cities may also attack in retaliation. Good coin spent no better than no coin when you were dead.
"Tempting, but I'll pass," Vict said, "I told you to turn around. I won't ask again."
The speaker crackled as the man sighed.
"Very well," the rider said, "I had hoped to do this another way. But if you insist."
Quicker than he thought would have been possible, the stranger's hand flashed into the interior of his coat. It was out again in an instant and an object was hurled at him. Vict retreated half a step and reached for the knife on his own belt. To his surprise, the object landed gently on the sand near his feet. It was not an attack after all. Curious, he stepped closer and looked closer. He felt the blood drain from his face. It was not a weapon, no, but it was definitely still a threat.
"You're a marshal!" Vict hissed angrily.
"And you are interfering in my lawfully sworn duty," the Stranger replied, "Will you grant me passage?"
This was bad. The badge that laid upon the desert floor before him was not like Vict's own. It was not a piece of metal. This was an actual biolocked minicomp. This badge could only be carried by those who had the full weight of the Restored Pan-Continental Alliance behind them as well as the Oligarch itself. Each badge was said to be a miniature mainframe that could be used to open any digital lock, access any account, and take control over any computer system if needed. If it still used a computer, it would yield to the badge if the wielder wished it. If that wasn't bad enough, if it was handled by anyone other than the biolocked owner it would administer a lethal discharge. Still, Vict hesitated.
"We don't really have a lot of use for the PCA this far out in wastes," he remarked, "Figured they forgot all about us."
"Just focused on other more pressing matters at the moment," the marshal clarified, "Cooperation now would be in your best interest."
Vict recognized a threat when he heard one. What's more, now that the badge had been thrown out, he was certain the Oligarch itself was listening in on them. The last thing the Wall needed was a cybernetic army marching down upon them.
"Yeah, well," Vict said as he stepped slightly to one side. Not quite yielding passage but not completely blocking it either.
"I still have to consider the people beyond," he explained.
"You have my oath my quarrel is not with you nor the people of the wall or the points beyond," the man said formally, "My bond is the apprehension of a singular individual."
"Do you swear," Vict asked, "That you will cause no harm to anyone other than your current assignment?"
"I make no such guarantees," the stranger countered, "I am entrusted to enforce the Oligarch's law. However, if you insist, I swear I will not exercise more force than is deemed necessary to achieve this goal and I will not interfere with any matters that I may observe that are outside the scope of my immediate objective regardless of their legal stature within the PCA save for Class II felonies or above. Such acts would supersede any oath I am authorized to provide."
Legal speak for "if I see someone being murdered, raped, or dismembered I'm legally required to interfere. But I won't stop people from lying, cheating, gambling, or partaking of illegal substances." Considering the authority the badge was offering, it was actually a very generous concession. A little too generous and one that immediately raised suspicions.
"And what do you expect in return for such an oath?" he asked.
"You have armed men behind you," the stranger noted, "Are they available if I require the assistance of a posse?"
"They're armed," Vict confirmed, "And trained for what it's worth. But I need them here."
"I did not ask that they be removed from service indefinitely," the stranger said, "I am asking if I have need of additional gunmen if you will provide them."
"And if I saw no?"
"Your gate is mechanized," the marshal pointed out, "Presumably computerized as well. As would be many of your wall's defenses."
"So I either take your oath and cooperate willingly or you take it by force?" Vict replied before grunting, "And if I tell my men to fire?"
"Then you simply have to hope they kill me first before I shoot any of them," the stranger said, "Otherwise I will have their corpses start shooting at you."
Vict sighed.
"You also offered payment before?" he reminded the stranger.
"An offer that was conditional on me not having to reveal my badge," the stranger said, "What is your response?"
"Your oath then," he said, "I need something to show we enacted our duty to protect the interior."
"Then you have it," the stranger said, "I swear to harm no one beyond this gate save in purview of my lawfully sworn duty and the scope of my current quarry."
There was a chirp from the badge. Vict assumed this meant the Oligarch had acknowledged the oath. If memory served, the oath of a marshal was considered a law in of itself. The badge would make certain its wielder stayed true to this pledge. With lethal force if necessary.
The rider came closer and now Vict could smell the rotting flesh as well as see it. The horse did not breathe, he noted. It moved silently and robotically with no external cues from its rider.
"Could you hand that back to me, please?" the rider asked while pointing at the fallen badge. Vict hesitated.
"It won't sting you as long as I am present and have given you authorization to touch it," the marshal assured him. Vict could not afford to lose more face in front of his men. This encounter had been humbling enough as is. He picked up the silver bar. Nothing happened. The surface was cool to the touch but did not otherwise harm him. If not for the dancing lights just below the metallic surface he might suspect it was a forgery. He handed it back to the rider and hoped he did not appear to be in a hurry to be rid of the thing.
"Thank you," the rider said and looked through the tunnel ahead.
"What town is beyond that gate?" he asked.
"The closest one is the town of Clean Air," Vict told him and shrugged, "It's an older settlement. Mostly just a few farmers and a saloon. Not much happening there. But you can get a bed for the night if you need it at the saloon." The rider nodded and started to ride forward. Without knowing quite why he did, Vict decided to add, "If you continue west and follow the ridge line you can find the Healing Valley.."
The horse froze mid step.
"What did you say?" the rider's speaker crackled.
"If you ride a few days west along the ridge line you will find the Healing Valley," Vict said, "At least, that's what I've heard. Everyone is heading there these days. Maybe your man is well."
"These Healing Valley," the rider asked, "What is it?"
"I don't know, really," Vict admitted, "Some new commune or settlement. I don't know. They say there is some sort of spring there or something that has a healing arcana. All I know is that the lands are very fertile and they say even mutants can drink from these waters and be renewed."
"You said it is to the west along the ridge line?"
"Yes," Vict said and, before he could add more detail, the dead horse surged forward into a gallop. The horse and rider went through the gate into the good lands at a pace no normal steed could hope to maintain. The horse kept this breakneck pace up without tiring as it flew past the settlement of clean air and angled towards the ridgeline beyond. As the sun sank the horse galloped on without showing other signs of fatigue. The rider, meanwhile, reached up with one hand to unbuckle the straps of his mask. Moving with the horse and anticipating each movement as if they were somehow joined together, he managed to free himself from the confines of the mask and breathed unhindered for the first time since leaving the Citadel across the wastes.
By the time the sun rose again the horse was beyond even his ability to sustain. The leg bones had cracked until the wear of racing along the rocky path at full speed and ruptures had appeared all across its flanks. He eventually led it to the side of the road and into a small gully between some stones. There he released his grip upon its body and allowed the flesh to resume its normal decaying processes. It was of no concern anyway. He could tell he was in the right place.
"Kincaid's here," he subvocalized. The implant just below his right ear heard him all the same and the Oligarch's response was immediate.
"Have you made visual contact?"
"No," he admitted, "But I can see evidence of his work. There is a valley below me. Lush fields of green with crops too large to grow by natural means."
"You are certain this is his work?"
"There's no death," he said, "I can't sense any at all around me. Even the soil. There is no decomposition taking place. The ground itself is essentially sterile. The only thing keeping these crops alive is his will." The Oligarch was silent for a moment. That in itself was troubling. It's processes worked many times faster than a human's. What could cause it to hesitate?
"Repositioning a satellite," the Oligarch explained for him, "And initial telemetry indicates you may have a bigger problem than we thought. That valley extends for several kilometers to the north and south of you. I estimate its total area to be in excess of 400 square kilometers."
"His power is still growing," the marshal concluded grimly.
"Even our worst case projections did not account for this," the Oligarch confirmed, "The area of influence is enormous and for him to sustain that much power without arcanic blowback is unheard of. This should not be possible with the resources available to a human mind."
"He's not exactly human anymore," the rider reminded the Oligarch.
"No," it confirmed, "He is not. Still, the organic strain should be crippling. He must be using his own power to sustain himself. That should be creating a feedback loop."
The rider nodded.
"Maybe the valley is a way of bleeding off the excess?" he suggested.
"Plausible," the Oligarch said, "But that creates a scaling issue. At some point he will be exerting more just to keep the blowback from consuming him than even his own enhanced vitality can maintain."
"When will that happen?"
"Uncertain," the Oligarch admitted, "I already stated this does not fit within current models. There is more."
"Don't tell me," the rider said, "The zone of no death means that my own arcana will be diminished."
"Or absent entirely," the Oligarch admitted, "Given that he cannot sustain this level of involvement indefinitely I believe this most likely indicates he is aware of you and that you are walking into a trap."
"So what do you suggest?" the rider asked, "Wait it out? See if he collapses and then go in?"
"The sphere of influence has already corrupted the local ecosystem and is likely impacting residents as well," the Oligarch said, "If this is allowed to progress unabated the damage is likely irreversible and may have a cascading effect on neighboring ecosystems."
"So if I don't walk into the trap," the rider translated, "We may have a full on ecological meltdown that will cost millions of lives. If I do go in and try to do damage control, I'm going in without my arcana?"
"You could return to the Wall and recruit more allies," the Oligarch suggested.
"No good," the rider said, "Once we go in then Kincaid can twist them too. They are all living people. Can you send a drop ship in?"
"If I could spare one do you think I would have sent you?"
"No," the rider agreed and sighed, "All right, into the trap I go."
The stranger returned his attention to the dead horse beside the road. In the short time he had been distracted a swarm of insects and all manner of flying and burrowing creatures had descended upon the animal. It's hide now was a virtual living carpet of creatures feasting upon the first real meal they had had in who knows how long. Before this he was certain it was only the power of Kincaid's aracana that had been keeping them alive. Alive but starving. Well, if Kincaid didn't know he was here before this had just sent up a big flare. Grimacing, he reached into the swarm of insects to retrieve his rifle from the saddle.
Walking into the valley below was surprisingly uneventful. No one rose to challenge him nor did any feral creatures attempt to accost him. If he didn't know better, he would think this was just another agricultural sector in the PCA. In fact, now that he was closer, the crops closest to him appeared to be the standard genetically engineered high yield wheat hybrid grown in the AgSec. Only a full meter taller. As he drew closer he caught the sounds of someone in one of the fields ahead of him. Curious, he slung the rifle's strap over his shoulder and checked both pistols were firmly in their holsters. Cautiously, he approached the source of the noise.
He found himself stepping into a small clearing among the dense grains occupied by an elderly man wearing what appeared to be tattered clothing that had a homespun look to it. The trousers were frayed at the ends and had been patched so many times and with such a variety of fabrics it was difficult to determine the original coloring. A brown vest covered his chest and left his arms exposed. The man was facing away and appeared to be attempting to cut down a swath of the grain using a sickle held awkwardly in the man's left arm. This was despite the fact that the man's right arm appeared to be more than twice the size of his left and had an uneven lumpy appearance as well as several gnarled scars across the surface. Holding his right arm stiffly, the man swung the tool. The stalks tumbled to the ground around him and the man cursed again.
"It's growing back too damned fast!" the man shouted at last.
"What is?" the stranger asked, "The wheat?"
The farmer wheeled around with his blade held high as if preparing to strike. The stranger, though armed, held his hands out to the sides in a gesture of peace. The farmer looked him up and down as if evaluating him before deciding to lower his blade.
"Who are you?" the farmer asked.
"Just a friend passing through," the stranger replied, "I heard you back here and thought you might need some help."
"Friend, eh?" the farmer asked with a snort, "You don't look like any friend I know." The stranger nodded his head towards the crops.
"What seems to be the problem?" he asked.
The farmer rolled his eyes back towards the recently felled grains and snorted.
"Look for yourself," he instructed, "See those stalks I just cut? Watch em."
The stranger did. It did not take long to notice what the farmer wished him to see.
"They are regenerating," the stranger declared.
"That's one way of looking at it," the farmer snarled, "Being a damned nuisance is another. There is supposed to be a path here to get back to my house. I can't clear it faster than it tries to grow back. I can't even leave those grains on the ground too long or they start sprouting as well."
"Can you burn a path?"
The farmer shook his head.
"Doesn't work," he explained, "Fires just go out and the plants heal themselves. You're new, aren't you?" The stranger nodded.
"I just came from the Wall," he explained, "I heard of a place called the Healing Valley and thought I would see it for myself."
"Healing Valley?" the old man spat, "Guess now that the Minister's here calling it plain old Coppertown ain't good enough for the likes of them."
"The Minister?"
"Look, son," the old man said patiently, "I ain't got all day to spend here talking to the likes of you. Now, you want to talk then you can help. You reap and I'll bag 'em."
The stranger seemed to consider arguing but finally nodded. He unclipped the respirator and mask from his chest before unslinging his rifle. He then doffed his coat and hat before bundling the gun and smaller items inside the confines of the coat. The stranger could be seen clearly now and the old man found himself staring at a younger man with sharp features and a hawkish beak of a nose. The stranger's hair was black and full unlike the old man's stringy gray locks. The hair was kept brushed straight back in what appeared to be a choice of convenience rather than aesthetics. The stranger's face was neither cruel nor kind nor even particularly handsome. It was just an everyman face. So why did the old man feel so certain this stranger who called himself a friend was hiding something behind those dark eyes?
"Name's Yacob," the farmer introduced himself, "What do they call you?"
The stranger didn't reply. He simply picked up the sickle and started hacking at the grains with quick and efficient motions. He did not have the skill nor the technique of an actual farmer, but he made up for it in speed. Yacob found himself hobbling along after the man while shoveling fallen grains into a sack.
"So, not big on names, eh?" Yacob remarked, "That's fine. I'll just call you Cat for the moment."
"Cat?"
"Because you should mind what curiosity did to one of those," Yacob snapped, "You just keep cutting and I'll answer your questions. But only until we get to the porch. Once we reach the house the deal's done."
"How far is the house?"
"Not far else I wouldn't have made the offer. So stop wasting time and ask what you came for. I know you ain't here to admire wheat."
"Fine," the stranger said, "Tell me about the Minister." Yacob shrugged.
"Not much to tell you," he said, "He showed up here about a year ago. Big talking man like you. Wouldn't tell us his name either. Just started talking like he was a preacher man. Going on about the rightful place of man and unshackling ourselves from the burden of slavery. Real 'make the world a better place' nonsense. Folks didn't really listen to him at first. But then the miracles started happening."
"Miracles?" the stranger grunted as he cut, "Like what sort of miracles?"
"I was getting to that!" Yacob snapped, "Don't rush me! Now when I say 'miracles' I don't mean loaves of fishes falling from Heaven. I mean like Bailey Moskva being able to walk again. Or Happy Tam regaining his vision. People in the town just started getting better. Healthier. But it didn't stop there. The crops were dying. Only they just stopped. Vegetables that were dying on the vine the day before got better. That kind of miracle."
The stranger, who was just now starting to breathe heavy from the exertion, only nodded his understanding and continued to hack away at the grains. He used to tool more like a machete than as a harvesting tool but, again, it was still better progress than Yacob could make on his own.
"In the early days we all thought that, well, maybe this Minister was onto something," Yacob went on, "He kept talking prosperity and we were feeling it, ya kin? Even the most piss poor farmer was having a bumper crop. All these lame folks who worked in the mines were getting healed up. Even the sick and the dying were up and walking around. It seemed like the good days would never end and people were praising the Minister and all his bollocks."
"But not you?" the stranger asked between gasps of exertion.
"Oh I fell for it to," Yacob said, "Me a hardcore believer, that I was. I even stood there smiling proudly as he took my Abby into his inner circle."
"Abby?" the stranger asked.
"My daughter," Yacob admitted with a sigh as he bent over to pick up more of the fallen wheat, "My little girl. She was such a delight to me and looked after me after the passing of my Elsie. All of twenty two years old and when the Minister said he chose her I was proud as a peacock."
The stranger slowed his frantic hacking.
"Something happened?" he asked, "With Abby?"
"Bah!" Yacob said, "Never you mind. That's none of your concern. I told you what you wanted to know. Now ask something else!"
"Why didn't you ask him to heal your arm?" the stranger asked.
Yacob froze in place and blanched.
"What?" he stammered.
The stranger paused and turned to point at the engorged and irregularly shaped right arm held limply at Yacob's side.
"Why didn't you-?"
"I heard what you said!" Yacob shouted, "Stand aside! I don't want any more of your help! Be off!"
The stranger didn't move.
"I meant no offense," he said, "It just appears that you have had a-"
The stranger moved his hand to indicate the swollen right arm. Yacob, seeing the movement, misinterpreted and jumped backwards while yelping. To the stranger's surprise, the right arm moved. Not only did it move on its own, he heard a faint whirring sound as it did. Yacob howled in pain and dropped to the ground. Blood trickled from an open wound in the arm that wasn't there before.
"Now you see what you made me do?" Yacob asked between clenched teeth, "That metal cuts right through!"
The sickle fell from the marshal's limp fingers. Those bumps. He recognized them now. They were in the approximate position and size for servo motors. Which could only mean one thing.
"That's a cybernetic arm," he said out loud.
"'Course it it!" Yacob snapped, "I lost the real one sixteen years ago in the mines! The mechasurgeon fitted me with a new one. Never really gave me any problems until this skin started growing over top of it."
Of course, the marshal realized. He should have realized. With the field of the arcana flooding the area even old wounds, healed wounds, would be affected. Growing a new arm would be impossible with the prosthetic in place. But escasing it with a new layer of skin was still possible. He felt sickened at the thought of living flesh growing over the metal arm and getting trapped inside the motors and actuators. The skin stretching and tearing only to heal over and do it again and again. He suddenly understood the bitterness of the farmer. He picked up the sickle, turned, and hacked at the vegetation with renewed vigor. Kincaid would pay for this. He would pay.
"Wait," Yacob said, "I told you-"
"I'm getting to your house," the marshal growled, "That was the agreement. You answered your questions and now I am doing my part."
He paused for a moment to lower the blade but only for as long as it took to unbutton the cuffs of his sleeves and to roll them up. He then resumed his relentless hacking and slashing. After a few minutes of labor he found himself staggering free from the dense vegetation and standing upon a wooden platform. Blinking in confusion, he lowered the tool and realized he was standing on the porch that had been his original objective. He dropped the sickle and turned to go. He found his way blocked by a cursing Yacob limping after him while dragging the marshal's coat and rifle in his wake with his one functional arm.
"Slow down!" Yacob gasped as he joined the marshal on the porch, "I can't keep up with your-"
Yacob'e eyes grew wide as he froze in mid step. The marshal looked in the direction of the man's gaze to see if he could find what had alarmed the man. It took him a moment to realize it was the fine parallel lines of the scars running along the marshal's own forearms. The lines, usually too faint to see, were an angry red from his recent exertion.
"It's just an implant," the marshal said between gasping breaths, "I'm a cyborg like yourself."
"Like me nothing," the farmer counted, "Them's battle implants. Are you a deserter?"
That was an interesting question.
"Do you get many deserters here?" the stranger asked as he retrieved his property from the limp grip of the older man.
"A few," Yacob admitted with a shrug, "Mostly PCA. Sometimes Oceania. Which are you?"
"I'm . . . not a deserter."
The old man snorted.
"I'm not," the marshal said, "It's complicated."
"Well," the old man said with another shrug, "At least now I know how you were able to push yourself like that. I hear those implants really juice you boys up."
The marshal didn't answer. Instead he turned to take his leave.
"Wait," Yacob said as he placed a restraining hand on the marshal's chest, "I didn't mean to yell at you earlier. It's just . . . it's not a good idea to talk about the Minister like that. Not out in the open. Not everyone sees him the way I do."
"I understand," the marshal said and then stepped to one side, "I have inconvenienced you enough for one day."
"You know him, don't you?" the old man asked as the marshal stepped up beside him, "That's why you were so keen to ask me those questions. Is that why you're here? You're after him?"
"Thank you for your hospitality, Yacob," the marshal replied, "I should go."
"Wait," the old man pleaded, "You should know about something if you plan on facing him."
"What is that?" the marshal asked while turning to face the smaller man. With a pained expression on his face, Yacob lifted his mangled prosthetic. The marshal heard the whir of servos fighting against the flesh coating. The farmer held up his arm and showed the unlined palm of his hand to the marshal. There was a peculiar bulge there.
"This," Yacob said just before a lightning bolt erupted from the palm of his hand and tore through the marshal's chest only to explode out the backside. The marshal crumbled to the porch with a look of confusion still painting his features.
Tune in for our next exciting episode!

So, a lot of people have pointed out all the flaws in Caesar's Legion and how the faction won't last very long after the death of Edward Sallow, and hence for that reason (aside from just not wanting to live in a genocidal slave society) it isn't the best choice for New Vegas. I don't disagree with those people, but I also think that the NCR may collapse as well, and this is why I personally think Vegas would be better off becoming independent (I prefer the Yes Man ending to the Mr House one but I'm not going to get into that since this post is about the NCR).
Now, obviously every society and faction will eventually fall apart, but I mean within a human lifetime. This isn't inevitable, granted, but it will likely require major reform to be averted, and I don't think annexing New Vegas will really do anything to prevent it, in fact it might actually end up doing so would do more harm than good.
Doctor Thomas Hildern predicts that due to the projected population growth of the NCR, the country will suffer mass starvation just ten years after the events of New Vegas. Bringing a whole new city and its surrounding settlements into the fold in a region not particularly well suited to agriculture would like the problem even worse.
What's more, while the Legion as it currently exists will of course collapse, it's former soldiers aren't just going to be immediately pacified, they're likely to continue raiding the area for slaves and resources, and while divided they might not be able to threaten the NCR like they did during the two battles of Hoover Dam, they are still going to continue harassing them to the point they have to station a lot of troops in the area, while they are still dealing with enemies in other parts of the country, such as in Baja California to the south.
And bear in mind, the NCR has to transport all of its supplies by Brahmin, and since the roads are so damaged they can't even have them pull carts and instead have to carry the goods directly on them. It has few or no trucks, trains, boats or aircraft, or the infrastructure needed for these things to run on, and even the few that it has could pretty easily be sabotaged by their enemies or attacked by raiders or hostile wildlife, unless they deploy even more troops to patrol them.
Now of course, some of you might point out that these same issues would likely affect an independent Vegas as well, but aside from the fact that the Mojave is a much smaller area than California, the primary advantage of the Securitron army isn't the fact that individual Securitrons are so powerful - it's the fact that they're robots. They don't need food or water, they don't need to sleep, they don't to be paid and they don't have emotions. This means that they will never suffer the morale or logistical issues that the NCR is facing and will continue to face.
The troops are already barely scraping by during the events of New Vegas, but if the NCR due to it's over expansion and economic crises ends up unable to supply or pay its troops then they may well end up deserting, mutinying and even defecting to other factions in order to support themselves and/or their families (afterall, even Chief Hanlon had plans to sabotage the defence of Hoover Dam, so I’m sure the soldiers in the lower ranks are even more frustrated). This is especially likely considering the fact that most troops in Mojave are conscripts rather than volunteers. They're there because they were forced to go there, not because they wanted to.
The securitrons on the other hand will always obey the leader of New Vegas, be they Mr House or the Courier (FTR, Josh Sawyer himself clarified what Yes Man meant by saying he was going to reprogram his personality to become more assertive - i.e. he was now only going to listen to the Courier, and hence some other person couldn't just come along and take over like the Courier did themself).
The NCR would also struggle to recruit local soldiers because it's pretty much universally hated in the region. Jacobstown are opposed to them because they've attempted to exterminate its inhabitants, Westside don't like them because of their water dispute with them, the Great Khans hate them due to the Bitter Springs massacre and all their wars with them, the Brotherhood are still technically at war with them at the beginning of the game, the Followers are opposed to them because them because of their imperialistic aggression coupled with the fact they just denounced the organisation, the Boomers hate them because they’re not Boomers, the Kings are opposed to them because they want to maintain control of Freeside, Goodsprings are opposed to them because they don’t want to pay NCR taxes, the Powder Gangers are angry because they practically enslaved them, gambling and prostitution are banned in the NCR and so the tribes on the Strip are unlikely to support them.
Now, regardless of whether you think these grievances are justified or not, they are nonetheless present. And yes, obviously the Courier can recruit the support of the aforementioned factions in the game or convince them to make peace, but I’m talking long-term here, not just the very brief amount of time the game takes place in. If things escalate further, NCR’s unpopularity could result in locals revolting against them, especially if the Legion has been defeated and hence the NCR’s presence is no longer considered necessary to protect the local populus.
Another problem is in the internal politics of the NCR. The NCR has pretty much copy-pasted the entire political, economic and legal systems of the pre-war United States. The same United States which had itself collapsed two centuries earlier. Now, regardless of whether the US started the Great War or China or whoever else did, the fact of the matter is the excessive consumption of US, coupled with its jingoistic foreign policy at least shared part of the responsibility for the calamity.
We even see the very same issues of the pre-war US crop up in the NCR. Like the former it has a hungry need for resources, and will stop at nothing to acquire these resources, hence its desire to occupy Helios One and the Hoover Dam. In doing so it has acquired more and more enemies from the likes of the Legion to the Brotherhood to the Enclave and so many others.
The capitalist economic system of both the pre-war US and the post-war NCR demands endless growth. Choosing to simply cut its losses and pull out of the Mojave would not be acceptable as this would result in economic stagnation, hence why it simply won’t do so unless forced out by one of the other factions.
We also see the rise of large corporations like the Gun Runners and the Crimson Caravans. Much as companies like Poseidon Energy and Vault-tec had done in the PWUS, these companies have begun using their excessive wealth to provide them with a disproportionate amount influence over the NCR’s government, effectively buying politicians that support their interests, helping them maintain their monopolies over their respective industries and muscle out potential competitors by any means necessary, and effectively replacing the democratic government with an oligarchy.
Now, as awful as Caesar may be, he makes a very fair point when he says that…

Greed runs rampant. The government is corrupt, accepting bribes from Brahmin barons and landowners, to the detriment of citizens. The NCR is a loose conglomerate of individuals looking out for themselves. It's lost virtue. No one cares about the collective, the greater good. It's not built to last. I'm just hastening the inevitable.

Corruption both historically and in our modern world has been a major hamper for civilisations. If you look at the Corruption Perceptions Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index), you’ll notice that there is a very strong correlation between a country having a high level of corruption and being economically poor and/or politically unstable.
This is because corruption makes it much harder for a country to collect taxes, enforce its laws, and do everything else it needs to do. If NCR corruption continues to run rampant, then Mr Sallow is very much correct in saying that it’s inevitable that it will be destroyed.
The rise of the aforementioned corporations also suggests that the NCR is facing a growing gap between rich and poor, as many of its citizens have been forced to squat in Freeside, suggesting a lack of housing in NCR territory. Economic inequality is associated with numerous health and social problems including obesity, drug abuse, poor mental health, crime, poor social mobility, and warfare. It has also historically led to numerous political upheavals including the French, Russian, Cuban and Iranian Revolutions.
During the NCR’s war with the Brotherhood, the latter destroyed the NCR’s gold reserves, which its currency was backed by. This forced the NCR to abandon the gold standard and adopt a fiat currency. Now, fiat currencies work in our real world because the countries/group of countries that issue the “safe-haven” currencies of the world (the Dollar, the Euro, the Pound, and the Yen) have been *relatively* stable and at peace for the last 75+ years, and hence they are generally trusted not to accrue excessive debt or to print money to excess.
The same can’t be said about the NCR. The country has been almost constantly at war ever since it was founded. Whether against the Master, or the Khans, or the Enclave, or the Brotherhood, or the Legion, or all the various raiders within or around its borders, and as I mentioned earlier, it is also on the brink of famine. This forces the country to borrow or print money in order to fund its war and relief efforts, respectively, further devaluing its currency.
In the game, NCR workers mention that the money that they are paid is worth a lot less than it should be as people in the area are reluctant to accept it instead of caps. The NCR has effectively three choices here – it can either continue paying them in NCR dollars at the current amount, which would over time decrease in effective value due to the inflation (which would likely spell disaster – if it’s workers or god-forbid, its soldiers were to see their wages gradually become worthless, they’d refuse to work or turn hostile), keep increasing it’s wages to keep up the inflation, which would result in further inflation, or just pay their wages in caps, which would set a pretty bad precedent if even the NCR’s government can’t trust its currency. If it were to abandon its currency altogether and go back to using bottle caps officially it would render all dollars worthless overnight.
California, even in our real world is notorious for its water insecurity, and real-world Californians don’t have to worry about their existing water supplies being irradiated. In New Vegas, Chief Hanlon remarks that:

Back west, you don't see too many of these. Lakes, I mean. Natural or man-made. Any kind, really. We neglected the dams or pumped all the water out a long time ago. Owens, Isabella, the San Luis. Drained the aquifers of everything they had. Just a lot of mud and dust now. It's a different feeling, watching the sun come up over the water. Takes some getting used to.

This would suggest that the NCR is facing a massive water shortage due it its unsustainable use of its water reserves. Only the Hoover Dam can really prevent a major crisis.
Now, as I mentioned earlier, the NCR gaining control of New Vegas would present a heavy burden on its already overstretched resources. But the truth is, it has kind of backed itself into a corner by even attempting to annex the region in the first place.
If it were to pull out of the region and accept the independence of New Vegas, then that would break the lure of invincibility that it has acquired though out the American South-West. Under Kimball’s leadership, numerous settlements both in Mojave and elsewhere have been annexed into the NCR against their will. If all of them, inspired by New Vegas’s success were to revolt into regain their own independence, then it would spell disaster for the NCR, as it would have to divide its forces even further to quell said rebellions.
Secondly, while Mr. House and presumably the Courier are willing to export water and electricity to the NCR, they are nonetheless going to charge heavy prices for it, and in caps, which would further deflate the value of the NCR dollar.
If the Legion were to take the dam and New Vegas, then they obviously wouldn’t been keen on supplying their enemy with water or power.
What’s more, while the NCR might still be able to defeat the Legion in a long-protracted war, due to the latter’s own internal problems, in the meantime, it would still have to defend against the Legion’s invasion.
This might actually come with some benefits, as everybody in the NCR would be united against their common enemy, and tribes and settlements on its frontiers who might have otherwise been hostile to the NCR might become supportive after learning more about the Legion, seeing the former as the lesser evil at least.
However, the amount of money and lives it would have to invest in its defence would be very difficult to source, especially without the increased tax revenues it could receive from New Vegas and from traders in the region.
While the NCR is intended to resemble the US in the 20th-21st centuries, in practice I think it better resembles the US prior to the Civil War. At that time, it was more common for a person to identify with their state first and foremost and their country second rather than the other way around.
The same holds true in the NCR – the five states that make up the union are constantly prioritising their own interests, even when this is to detriment of the nation as a whole. There are also internal disputes between them, with the Hub and Shady Sands competing with one another for economic dominance.
With the perfect storm of a famine, a currency crisis, a shortage of water, a revolt of the frontier territories and a protracted war with the remnants of the Legion, escalated internal disputes could well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
So, what changes would the NCR have to implement to prevent collapse? The first thing it would need to do is break up the trade monopolies that have developed. If they are split up into smaller companies and forced to compete with one another than their ability to interfere with the NCR’s political process would go away along with a lot of the corruption the NCR is plagued with.
Another thing it would have to do is adopt a much more sustainable policy towards its water resources, discouraging waste amongst its citizens and banning business practices which allow water to go to waste.
Any further expansion should take place in the much less arid north, towards Oregon, Washington and British Columbia, providing more water and arable land. Further wars should be avoided wherever possible.
The country would have to reform to become more centralised, diminishing the influence of the individual states and preventing further division of the country.
Unfortunately, I don’t see these reforms being implemented quickly enough to prevent collapse.
But then, why is New Vegas better off becoming independent? Because it presents an opportunity to create something entirely new, and better, rather than trying to recreate the very society under whose watch the world ended, and not even doing a very good job of that.

Obviously this isn't set in England, but spiritually this piece is within my English Football series. The first six episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce, and Wimbledon FC's controversial relocation to Milton Keynes
This spin-off piece follows on from the main question raised by the Wimbledon FC/MK Dons saga. When does a club stop being a club? Is it the legal entity or something rather more intangible? These were questions posed with regards to one of the titans of Scottish football earlier this decade.
Background - The Establishment Club
Rangers FC has long cultivated an image as Scotland's 'establishment club', it isn't just a sports team, but an institution that embodies a particular way of living and worldview. Alongside other institutions like the Church of Scotland, the club is perceived as embodying traditional and small-C conservative Scottish values. Alongside Celtic (more on them in a bit) Rangers have dominated Scottish football since the league started. No club other than the two Glaswegian sides has won the league since 1985. Rangers have 54 league titles, Celtic have 51. The joint 3rd best sides (Aberdeen and the Edinburgh pair Hearts and Hibernian) have just four a piece. And yet as a legal entity the club ceased to exist in 2012. What happened? Does Rangers FC still exist?
It would be impossible to tell this tale without telling the tale of the Old Firm and the profound political, cultural, and religious divides involved. Glasgow's two largest clubs have a rivalry that defies comparison to anything in the rest of Scotland or in England. Essentially Rangers FC and its supporters represent Protestantism and British Unionism, while Celtic FC are considered to be aligned with Catholicism and Irish Nationalism. When the two sides meet, the Scottish saltire is rarely flown by supporters. Rangers supporters prefer the Union Jack or Ulster Banner, Celtic fans are likely to fly Irish tricolours. It is as if somebody took the socio-cultural conflict of Northern Ireland and transplanted it into a football ground.
Which is sort of what happened. Ultimately a big factor was migration to Glasgow in the early 20th century - Irish Catholics in Glasgow set up Celtic FC as their club, while Protestants from Northern Ireland (who are historically of largely Scottish extraction) who worked in the shipyards of the Clyde came to adopt Rangers which was located near the shipbuilding areas. Local Scots, being generally Protestant, inclined to support Rangers and many would have shared the religious and political feelings of the newcomers from Northern Ireland. This has meant that at matches both clubs have sections of support who chant about the Northern Irish conflict - some Rangers fans have a 'songbook' including the Loyalist anthem The Sash (which commemorates King William III, the Dutchman invited to become King of England and Scotland who defeated a Catholic army at the Boyne in 1690), while Celtic fans might sing in support of the Irish Republican Army. This involves by no means the majority of supporters, but it is important in setting the atmosphere at games.
Rangers FC had until the late 1980s an alleged policy of not signing any player known to be a Catholic. This led legendary Celtic manager Jock Stein to joke that if offered a Catholic or a Protestant to sign for Celtic, he would sign the Protestant in the knowledge that Rangers would never sign the Catholic. I cannot find evidence of any player ever transferring directly between Celtic and Rangers in the postwar era, with the low number of players who have turned out for both having had a 3rd club in between. Another example of the intensity is the way in which the clubs traditionally share shirt sponsors. This sounds innocuous, but the only way to sponsor one of the clubs without triggering a mass boycott by the other supporters was to simply sponsor both.
No other football rivalry in Britain has a dynamic like this (Liverpool and Everton did to a far lesser extent before about the 1960s, but sectarianism largely died out there decades ago), even in the days when hooliganism was a serious blight on English football it never quite reached the sort of scenes on display at the 1980 Scottish Cup Final.
Which club is the 'biggest'? It is impossible to say. Rangers have had more League titles, but Celtic being the first British club to win a European Cup in 1967 is a fairly potent trump card. What is without a doubt is that they are the two best supported Scottish clubs and their rivalry is possibly like no other.
Chasing the Rainbow
Avid readers of this series will notice a theme. The 1990s were a boom time for football and everyone involved in the sport. TV revenue started to really take off, as did the prizes for winning European competitions. Many clubs sought to capitalise on the windfall and Rangers were no exception.
Their chairman, Sir David Murray, had become one of Scotland's weathiest businessmen by leveraging debts against future revenue. He spent big on Rangers in the hope that they would win a major European trophy and repay his investment. Top players like Paul Gascoigne came to Rangers where before it was fairly rare for big name players from other leagues to move to Scotland. Domestically his investments paid off, from 1989-97 Rangers won nine League titles in a row, equalling the record set by Jock Stein's great Celtic side between 1966-74.
Unfortunately this did not translate to the windfall a Champion's League win would have given. While Murray was bankrolling Rangers, other clubs around Europe were likewise chasing the new massive financial prizes. Rangers came close to getting past the group stage of the new Champion's League format in 1992-93, but no Scottish club would enter a Champion's League knockout round until Rangers do so in 2005-06.
The debts mounted and Murray sought ways to manage the debts and hedge them against future revenue anticipated from TV fees and European prize money. He allowed the Bank of Scotland to buy a stake in the club with a mortgage allowing them to recover their losses in the event of the club defaulting on its repayments. Nothing to worry about, surely? David Murray had become a wildly successful businessman by effectively managing credit lines and debt against future income to fund expansion.
But a far bigger problem was just three small letters.
EBT
Put simply, Employee Benefit Trusts are a way of not paying tax, it was legal in some cases at the time but is generally illegal now.
Murray sought, from 2000, to pay his players through EBTs. This meant that they would be able to offer high net wages to players while cutting tax costs. In Britain most employees have all their tax payments deducted by the employer, so schemes like this and ones where employees are paid in dividends are a way of essentially not paying tax.
By 2010 HMRC had begun to investigate the case, concluding that Rangers may have evaded £49m in taxes, a vast amount for a club already overleveraged in debt in a league not known for being particularly wealthy.
By about 2008 Murray had had enough of Rangers and was looking to sell up. He had gambled and lost huge amounts of money on the club, which was now saddled with huge amounts of debt. The prospect of paying £49m to HMRC if the courts ruled against Rangers deterred any serious buyer and it took some years for a buyer to emerge. Another serious issue was the sheer amount of debt Rangers had to Lloyds (who had taken over the Bank of Scotland), with fans in 2009 threatening a boycott of the banking chain if the bank called in its debts.
Would a buyer emerge and save Rangers from this predicament?
Well, a buyer would emerge in 2011. Not the other bit, sadly.
Enter Craig Whyte
Craig Whyte had once been Scotland's youngest millionaire as a venture capitalist. He bought the club for £1 from Murray but desperately needed to leverage some funds to settle the Lloyds debt, so he borrowed a cool £26.7m against future season ticket sales. This on the face of it should have set alarm bells, even the biggest clubs don't make huge amounts of money on matchday tickets in relation to their massive costs.
Whyte also indulged in a bit of tax fiddling. But rather than setting up an avoidance mechanism and letting the lawyers fight it out, he just stopped sending Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs the income tax payments for the club players and staff. Definitely not the sophistication of Murray.
Matters only got worse. In early 2012 BBC Scotland aired a BAFTA-winning documentary about Whyte and Rangers, which revealed that Whyte had been once banned from working as a company director for seven years. The Scottish Football Association agreed, Whyte was not a 'Fit and Proper' person to own a football club.
At about this time Rangers entered administration. When this happens in Britain, the company's creditors can agree to a 'Company Voluntary Arrangement' (CVA) which essentially means agreeing a plan for the company to continue operating while in administration so the creditors can recover their debts. HMRC, with the outstanding £49m tax case from Murray's era plus the money owed by Whyte's outright failure to pay tax, voted against allowing this to happen.
In the absence of a CVA and agreement with creditors, this meant that Rangers FC as a company ceased to exist in June 2012, with all assets transferred to 'Sevco Scotland Ltd'.
Could this have been avoided? In the end, the £49m owed to HMRC which proved such a millstone has been substantially reduced and the cases around it are still ongoing. But ultimately, Rangers had vast amounts of debt not just to HMRC.
For his part Whyte would be bankrupted by his loan to buy the club and would be faced with a far longer ban on acting as a company director.
Sevco FC?
Sevco inherited everything Rangers had. The players had an opportunity to transfer their employment to Sevco, which also gained Ibrox Stadium and Ranger's membership of the Scottish Premier League.
For the club owned by Sevco to be able to play in the SPL next season, 2/3rds of members had to vote in favour. Clubs such as Aberdeen, Dundee United, and Hearts bowed to fan feeling that Rangers could not continue where they left off. In the end, no club voted in favour of Rangers remaning in the SPL with only Kilmarnock abstaining. This event would generate a huge amount of bad feeling and bitterness from Rangers fans who felt that supporters of other clubs were content to throw them under a bus for reasons not of their making. There was definitely a sense of schadenfreude from supporters of other clubs, watching Scotland's 'Establishment Club' go to the wall.
Could Rangers join the Scottish First Division and gain promotion to the Premier League? First Division clubs didn't want to face the consequences of a Premier League problem, so they also rejected it.
In the end, the Scottish Football League allowed Rangers FC to rejoin the league in the Third Division, a largely semi-professional league three divisions below the Premier League. Their first competitive game was a Challenge Cup (competition for the two lower leagues in the Scottish Football League) tie against Brechin City, who represent a sleepy town of just 7,000.
Clawing their way back up
Most of Ranger's players had refused their statutory right to transfer employment to the new company. Nonetheless, the 2012-13 season started well with their first home league game setting a world record for the best attended fourth division match in history as over 49,000 attended Rangers vs East Stirlingshire. A strong league performance saw Rangers confirm promotion into the 3rd tier by the end of March.
2013-14 saw another promotion as Rangers had an unbeaten season in League One (the leagues were renamed at about this time) to secure promotion to the Championship, the first league which would be wholly filled with professional clubs after the mix of professional and semi-professional that plies their trade in Scotland's lower leagues.
Rangers didn't make it three back-to-back promotions as they lost a promotion play-off final 6-1 to Motherwell, one of Scotland's more successful non-Old Firm clubs who had suffered a stint in the 2nd tier.
During this season they met Celtic in the cup. Some Celtic fans placed an advert in a newspaper claiming that the 'Old Firm' was over and while they had enjoyed a rivalry with Rangers FC they did not recognise the new club as the same entity. This caused some controversy, not just with Rangers fans, but with Celtic fans who were indeed looking forward to the first Old Firm in some time. The accusation that Rangers were 'Zombies' or 'Sevco FC' would become a common one from Celtic supporters at games and remains as such.
Rangers won the 2016-15 Scottish Championship to secure promotion, while also beating Celtic in a Scottish Cup semi-final. But, the 'Gruesome Twosome' of Scottish football would once again grace the top flight together.
Same as before?
Celtic had done very well out of the previous few years. They had won a succession of League titles at a canter with the accompanying European qualification giving them financial muscle the other clubs couldn't compete with. Rangers finished a respectable 3rd, but Celtic once again dominated the league.
After an embarrassing elimination out of the Europa League at the hands of a semi-professional side from Luxembourg, Rangers didn't improve on their 3rd place and Celtic won again. It wasn't until 2018-19 that Rangers finished 2nd.
With Celtic winning again.
Could Celtic's domination be broken before they won 10 titles in a row and broke the record jointly held by 1960s-70s Celtic and 1990s Rangers? Perhaps not yet.
2019-20 started well, Rangers had a fantastic run in the Europa League under Steven Gerrard and beat Celtic at their ground for the first time since 2010. COVID put paid to an increasingly close title race with Celtic awarded the title based on Points Per Game with the season abandoned.
This season has very much been Ranger's season though. At the time of writing they seem, barring a miracle/disaster, overwhemingly likely to win the League this year and deny Celtic the coveted ten in a year.
Postscript
Is the Rangers FC of today the same club as that pre-2012? Displays from Celtic fans would say not, and as a legal entity it certainly isn't the same. But UEFA allows for 'sporting continuity' for a club in terms of identity and honours even if the holding company or corporate structure changes. This suggests something that many football supporters would agree with - a club is as much as community asset as it is a company or business and the stories we have looked at explore the issues when the business and the community collide.
Next time, we'll take a look at how Arsenal Fan TV revolutionised football social media while turning their club into a laughing stock