Hello, We did a pre-FA mock draft in the Jets discord with 32 members GMing for the various teams. Some of the GMs provided explanations below on their thought process for the picks. Sheets link 1) Jacksonville (Gmoney): QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson #16 I pick Trevor because we needed a qb and Trevor is a generational talented qb
2) NY Jets (stackingdollars): QB Zach Wilson, BYU #1 Both Fields and Wilson have great qualities but I think Wilson has the edge. The biggest advantage Wilson has is his anticipation. I think he would fit very well in the LaFleur offense and can become a franchise QB with the Jets.
TRADE: Miami gives 1.03 (3), Carolina gives 1.08 (8), 3.09 (73), 2022 CAR 1st 3) Carolina (cantstopthis): QB Justin Fields, OSU #1 Justin Fields is a highly talented prospect with all the tools to become a franchise guy. In Carolina, he can sit behind Teddy B and work with elite skill position players to truly hone in the skills to allow him to reach his full potential. Moving ahead of Atlanta was important because it allowed me to secure one of the top QBs in the class. Moving a future first and a third this year felt like great value because I was able to snag a QB I believe has elite potential in the nfl, while maintaining seconds which I can use to build around Fields.
4) Atlanta (jorjor): T Penei Sewell, Oregon #58 A very good tackle who I think is bpa rn. I don’t feel good taking Lance this early so I took the best player at the pick.
5) Cincinnati (Sliz): T Rashawn Slater, Northwestern #70 This is the worst case for Cinci, and they'll be kicking themselves for a meaningless late season win over Houston. OT1 Sewell was off the board, as were the top 3 QBs that could fetch decent tradeback value. While Chase has been a common mock, I think a Higgins/Boyd duo is easily complimented without spending this much capital to address it. With no trade back partner, Slater (OT1 on some boards) is a nice consolation. Slater will slot in as an immediate starter at tackle with versatility to slot inside should CIN address the tackle spot opposite Jonah Williams in FA.
6) Philadelphia (Salty): WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU #1 The Eagles are light in the weapons department. They haven't have a reliable receiver in years, and the negatives of that have shown their face the past 2 years, with Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts struggling at times to move the ball because of the lack of Receivers. Justin Fields was off the board at 6 and I feel like Wentz or Hurts paired with such a dominant prospect at Receiver could work wonders. Chase is a unique blend of size, speed, and talent at the WR position. He has solid size at 6 foot and a bit over 200 pounds, with sure hands and really good route running. His 2019 season at LSU was incredible and he produced one of the best WR seasons of all time at the collegiate level. I have no doubt with his abilities that he will immediately be able to put up good numbers and improve the offense and passing game, giving the eagles a much needed extra dimension to their offense.
TRADE: Detroit gives 1.07 (7), 3.25 (89), San Francisco gives 1.12 (12), 2.11 (43) 7) San Francisco (Anc): QB Trey Lance, NDSU #5 Kyle Shanahan is too good of a coach to keep languishing with a mediocre Jimmy G who is only okay when he can stay healthy. Trey Lance is a boom/bust prospect with a TON of upside and a big learning curve. In this scenario, he has the opportunity to either sit and learn with a capable bridge QB, OR if Shanahan chooses kick start his career in the best system in the league at empowering QBs to be successful. Lance joins a loaded team that, despite having some deficiencies in the IOL and a few pieces potentially leaving in FA on the defense, is ready to compete for the division right now and can afford moving down in round 2 to try and secure the future face of the franchise at QB. If he works out, the Niners get to have the type of athletic and dynamic QB under center that Shanahan has never had.
8) Miami (tolgzz): WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama #8 Bringing Tua a much needed weapon and ex teammate.
9) Denver (paxton): CB Caleb Farley, Virginia #3 At this position with no QBs in consideration, I chose to address Denver's most obvious need, CB. Farley has an almost impossible blend of physical traits. Size, speed, fluidity. Farley to me projects as a shutdown corner who plays on WR1s on the outside. In a division with Tyreek Hill, Henry Ruggs and Keenan Allen, he's a perfect fit. While Surtain was in consideration, I dont think he can match the traits and athleticism and will struggle against speedy receivers in the AFC West. Farley's ceiling is too high to pass on here.
10) Dallas (spencerw): CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama #2 With a depleted DB core and 6 S/CBs entering FA, CB is the biggest need for the Dallas Cowboys. Going for Surtain, a corner whose best fit is an outside man-coverage CB is a huge upgrade and can be a day 1 starter on the outside for the Cowboys. Surtain's length and athleticism creates a lock-down potential that can be extremely helpful for a defense lacking talent across all three levels.
TRADE: NY Giants give 1.11 (11), New Orleans gives 1.28 (28), 2022 NOR 1st 11) New Orleans (Misery): LB Micah Parsons, Penn St #11
12) Detroit (Zingy): T Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech #77 Detroit sucks, OT is the second most valuable position in the NFL, Darrisaw will be a really really good tackle in the NFL and has experience playing in the scheme Goff has played in his entire career. One of the first building blocks that will actually be on this team when they get a real QB in a year or two. Okudah and Darrisaw might be the only 2 on the roster in 5 years.
13) LA Chargers (run1609): CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina #1 The Chargers have a pressing need at CB with Michael Davis entering free agency (I expect him to be retained) and CHJ/Casey Heyward on the wrong side of 30. He profiles as a lockdown man CB who new HC Brandon Staley hopes can approximate the role Jalen Ramsey played for him across town with the Rams.
TRADE: New England gives 1.15 (15), 3.33 (97), 7.15 (241), Tampa Bay gives 1.31 (31), 2.31 (63), 3.31 (95), 2022 TAM 2nd 15) Tampa Bay (rgoing): EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami #15 Tampa is a perfect spot for GR. He can learn behind JPP and Barrett for a year or so and get more refined as a pass rusher. Rousseau is someone who I believe can play all across the DLIne and won’t have any pressure to start right away. At only 20 years old and equipped with excellent measurables and a high motor, the sky is the limit for him.
16) Minnesota (beezus): EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan #19 With darrisaw and horn coming off the board at 12 and 13, the Vikings sought a trade back knowing there would be suitors hungry for one of waddle/pitts. The cardinals called and offered 1.16 and a 2022 2nd for the pick. We countered, adding in a pick swap of 91 and 80. Arizona obliged and it was a done deal. At 16, it came down to paye, AVT, and Christian barmore. After seeing a trade with the football team fall through, the Vikings took the toolsy edge rusher from Michigan. Kwity Paye has the athletic tools and the build to become an elite pass rusher. His ceiling combined with Minnesota’s pedigree of developing defensive talent is a recipe for success for the Vikings.
17) Las Vegas (jmah): IDL Christian Barmore, Alabama #58 I’ve only watched Christian Barmore in the national championship game, but he should really help the Raiders trash defense.
18) Miami (tolgzz): LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa #23 With this pick Dolphins bring in a LB they plan to start from day 1. Collins brings with him size and power combined with his athleticism. He can defend the run, play the pass in coverage and even be used to rush the QB. Collins fills a spot of need for Dolphins and hopefully turns into a stud LB for them for years to come
19) Washington (klondike): QB Mac Jones, Alabama #10 Good fit. Lots of talent and running plays out of the backfield. Smart player, good game manager. Ideal fit for both parties. He can sit behind Alex Smith for however long.
20) Chicago (Mayor): WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama #17 With the Bears offense being eternally awful, Allen Robinson looking like a goner more and more and rookie WRs more frequently making plays fresh out of college picking up Waddle will hopefully jump start this offense with whatever vet QB the bears roll with in 2021
21) Indianapolis (Viddstuff): T Sam Cosmi, Texas #52 While the colts are lacking all over at offense, Costanzo retiring really put them in a tough spot. I could have gone WR here, but the colts offense can get creative with their weapons, and it was too early to overdraft the QB on the board. Cosmi would fit in well on the blindside and protect whoever starts at QB for a long time.
22) Tennessee (botlane): EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia #13 Azeez Ojulari is an attempt to fix one of the biggest voids in the Tennessee Titans defense, the pass rush. Ojulari has a great get-off, a mixture of speed, bend and power which makes his kit very powerful to take even the most agile lineman off of their game. A great athlete with tremendous upside, Ojulari's explosion off the line is marvelous, paired with a great jab/stab, he is able to create space with his length. If you don't jam him at the line and initiate contact, he's got a solid enough technique that pairs with his athleticism. Ojulari has the intangibles to be a great pass-rusher in this league and if he keeps developing, that's right where he's headed.
23) NY Jets (stackingdollars): WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota #0 Entering this off-season the Jets are in need of a WR. Bateman has tremendous route running ability and great hands. Pairing this pick with QB Zach Wilson will help give the Jets offense the spark they are looking for.
24) Pittsburgh (Fireblast): QB Kyle Trask, Florida #11 Although this might be a bit of a reach, Steelers desperately need a qb and neither big benor dwayne haskins is it. The plan here would be to sign a FA guy, let trask sit behind him for a year, and then he takes the reigns. Trask with the right devolopment can probably be at least a decent enough starter I'd guess, not near where ben was in his prime, but very qbs are that good.
25) Jacksonville (Gmoney): T Alex Leatherwood, Alabama #70
TRADE: Cleveland gives 1.26 (26), Green Bay gives 1.29 (29), 3.29 (93) 26) Green Bay (herb): CB Asante Samuel Jr, FSU #13 So my reasoning for picking Samuel is the packers need someone to pair up with Jaire Alexander, Samuel was the best choice available and he can really bring a much needed CB2 to Green Bay.
27) Baltimore (oman): EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn St #28 Ravens have Judon and McPhee hitting the open market, thus opening some obvious holes. I was looking WR initially but given how the draft played out so far I liked the edge options more. I like his athletic ability in Winks scheme and he should be a good fit.
28) NY Giants (rubbersoul): WR Rondale Moore, Purdue #4
29) Cleveland (Huntington): EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington #9 Tryon is a tall, big, athletic edge who can play standing up or can be a traditional 4-3 DE. He can both drop back in coverage or rush the passer. He’s a 3-down player who can grow and complement Garrett. A very productive 2019 overshadowed by his opting out in 2020. Tryon is a high energy player with the size to defend the run though its an area he needs to improve. With Vernon both injured a free agent, Tryon will have a chance to start immediately.
30) Buffalo (AntRob): RB Najee Harris, Alabama #22 The Bills completely abandoned the run for large portions of last year and basically told Josh Allen to go win games by himself. The Bills need some juice in the backfield, I don't have confidence in Singletary or Moss being that guy for them, as evidenced by Daboll's playcalling. Harris is the most well rounded back in this class and checks every box for me. What makes him valuable in addition to his frame and run + catch ability is his elusivity (wiggle...light, nimble feet) and his power. The blending of all these things together gives you a really upper class RB prospect that will finally be able to bring the Bills offense some multiplicity and balance in scheme.
31 New England (rgoing): LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame #6 The patriots fielded calls at the 15th spot, although there are questions surrounding the Quarterback position, New England ultimately felt a trade back with the Buccaneers was to the 31st pick was the best move. New England does not draft for need in the first round, they draft for best available player. The Patriots drafted Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah out of the University of Notre Dame with the 31st pick. Although JOK is listed as a linebacker, New England isn't going to just utilize his talents there. JOK is the new breed of defender, his ability and versatility allows him to play different roles on defense the perfect type of player for the patriots.
TRADE: Kansas City gives 1.32 (32), Cincinnati gives 2.06 (38), 4.06 (110), 7.05 (231) 32) Cincinnati (Sliz): IOL Alijah Vera-Tucker No matter what they do in FA, the value was too good to pass up here. With OL needy teams (MIA, NYJ) sitting ahead of the Bengals this trade up felt necessary to lock up a top guy. A 4th and a 7th (Bengals got a 7th back in the Dunlap trade) was a cheap price to pay to get there, while also picking up the 5th year option. AVT projects as a solid OG that should be a consistent starter on an IOL that desperately needs a long-term piece. I feel AVT's an insanely safe pick to be productive, putting him a tier above the next group of guys each with their own question marks (medical or otherwise). Paired with Slater in rd 1 and a healthy Jonah Williams, CIN now has several young cornerstone pieces to protect and grow with Joe Burrow and open lanes for Mixon. AVT has positional versatility, allowing the Bengals the chance to let guys compete for multiple spots and see what lineup works the best. This is a make or break year for Taylor. This is a franchise that needs to protect the future in Joe Burrow. Double dipping at OL helps both those facets.
33) Jacksonville (Gmoney): S Trevon Moehrig, TCU #7
34) NY Jets (stackingdollars): IOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma #56 NYJ’s OL was a huge improvement from 2019 but it still needs work especially in the middle. Creed offers versatility and a long term option at center. Connor McGovern would be able to play OG as he has experience there, or Creed can play OG as he has taken some snaps there during the senior bowl. Creed has quick hands and good size and can bring stability on the OL for years to come.
35) Atlanta (jorjor): CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia #3
36) Miami (tolgzz): S Andre Cisco, Syracuse #7
TRADES: Philadelphia gives 2.05 (37), Denver gives 2.08 (40), 4.09 (115), 2022 DEN 6th 37) Denver (Paxton): WR Kadarius Toney, Florida #1 I was shocked Toney fell this low, and after having tried to trade up multiple times before, I was finally able to make it work. I felt I needed to jump the chiefs so some might say I overpaid, but hey. Toney was IMO BPA, his evasiveness is unmatched in this class and he is a willing contested catcher. Toney is a perfect fit alongside Jeudy, Sutton and Hamler and will provide the Broncos with a true "weapon". While WR isnt close to the broncos most pressing need, this pick makes the broncos offence a lethal force.
38) Kansas City (teutonic): G Jalen Mayfield, Michigan #73 I tried trading up for the falling JOK but had no takers on my trade offers and when it got to my pick I felt comfortable with enough options that I elected to trade back for an extra 4th and 7th. Mayfield is a big man who I think will slot into a guard position at the next level, he's extremely strong and fits a need on the OL. TRADES: Carolina gives 2.07 (39), 2022 CAR 5th, Chicago gives 2.20 (52), 3.20 (84), 2022 CHI 4th 39) Chicago (Mayor): IOL Wyatt Davis, Ohio St #52
40) Philadelphia (Salty): EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas #46 I originally had pick 37, and was looking at Ossai as well as other players like Nick Bolton as a possible selection. However, the Broncos came to me with a nice offer that netted me a current 4th and a 2022 6th while only moving back 3 spots. I acquired the 40th pick and used that on Ossai. Ossai is a great pass rusher who is also talented in the run game. He was moved around a good amount in college before settling as an EDGE for the Texas Longhorns. He is big and fast, and can be moved around the D line. The Eagles run a 4-3 defense which Ossai can excel in, and he also works very well in other defensive packages. Putting Ossai on this already promising D Line with names like Derek Barnett, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and most importantly Fletcher Cox could put this line back at the peaks they experienced in 2017, when their defense could take over and destroy the opposing offense.
41) Detroit (Zingy): EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami #15
42) NY Giants (rubbersoul): LB Nick Bolton, Missouri #32
43) Detroit (Zingy): WR Terrace Marshall, LSU #6
44) Dallas (spencerw): IDL Daviyon Nixon, Iowa #54 I'm once again addressing the putrid Dallas defense that gave up almost 30 points a game last season. Nixon can line up at the 3-tech as a 4-3 DT under Dan Quinn and can make an immediate impact on the inside as a power gap rusher and can help with one of the worst rush defenses in the league (almost 160 rush yards/game). I was hoping to grab Bolton here, but Nixon is a solid IDL that can shore up a huge hole in the Dallas defense on day 1. The Cowboys now have 2 young defensives pieces to begin rebuilding/rejuvenating a declining side of the ball.
45) Jacksonville (Gmoney): TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn St #87
46) New England (rgoing): T Jackson Carman, Clemson #79 The Patriots picked Clemson standout Jackson Carman. The Patriots are unsure if he will stay at Tackle or move to guard, what they do know is that they received a powerful and athletic player standing at 6’5 330. Carman is best known for his superb run, although he was able to neutralize DROY Chase Young in the 2019 CFP Playoffs last season. Carman fits perfectly for the Patriots offense as they are known for their smash mouth football, and play-action passing.
47) LA Chargers (run1609): IOL Trey Smith, Tennessee #73 This pick is contingent upon his medicals checking out (blood clots in lungs, 2018). Frankly, I'm not positive as to what a Joe Lombardi offense will look like, but I do know that Smith has what it takes to succeed at the next level. Very powerful, consistenly wins in a phone booth but has the requisite athleticism for his size to win in space too.
48) Las Vegas (jmah): EDGE Carlos Basham Jr, Wake Forest #9 Carlos Basham Jr.: I've seen PFF tweet about this guy before so I think he might be good. Raiders D line is already looking much improved with Barmore at 17 and now "Boogie" Basham at 48.
49) Arizona (Brodie): IDL Marvin Wilson, FSU #21
50) Miami (tolgzz): RB Travis Etienne, Clemson #9
51) Washington (klondike): T Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame #74 WFT desperately needs tackle. He has shown great strides in advancing his game. Not the most physically gifted player, but he plays smart football.
TRADE: Carolina gives 2.20 (52), LA Rams gives 2.25 (57), 6.25 (210), 2022 LAR 5th 52) LA Rams (prime): LB Dylan Moses, Alabama #32 The Rams are projected to be bottom-5 in cap space in both 2021 and 2022 once the Stafford trade goes through according to OTC, and they don’t have a first-round choice until 2024. Even worse, they have six starters projected to be UFAs this year (Reynolds, Blythe, Floyd, Ebukam, Johnson, Hill), and four next year (Corbett, Kiser, Young, Fuller). As a result, landing a future starter with this pick was crucial. I was willing to move up a little because of how important it was to land a future starter here. Moses had a dominant 2018 season before missing 2019 with a knee injury and rebounding in 2020, and I think he fits well as a 3-4 ILB replacement to either Micah Kiser or Kenny Young in 2022.
54) Indianapolis (Viddstuff): EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pitt #91
55) Pittsburgh (Fireblast): RB Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis #19 Although the steelers have some other needs, RB I felt was a major one. James connor isn't the answer, and I think gainwell although only really playing 1 season fully can provide versatility in the backfield, as not only did he have almost 1500 yards on the ground, with an average of over 6 yds per carry, he also had just over 600 yds receiving. Overall, I think he can be a solid RB for the steelers, assuming their offensive line holds.
57) Carolina (cantstopthis): CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern #2 After the Chiefs took Jalen Mayfield, I was left in an awkward spot. I didn't feel too strongly about any of the guys on the board at 2.39. Luckily, the Chicago Bears came calling and I was able to regain some of the assets that were lost in the trade up for Justin Fields. At 2.52, I had a few guys on my board I was comfortable with and decided to trade back 5 spots, taking a chance that at least one of my guys would be there. Luckily, Newsome was still on the board. Greg Newsome II has been rising on boards everywhere, and rightfully so. He has good ball skills to combine with solid athleticism as well as a nice frame that will help him to succeed at the next level. He also has good awareness as well as good instincts to help him out. Newsome will fit right in with the Carolina Panthers, who were among the leaders with their usage of cover 3 and zone.
58) Baltimore (oman): IOL Ben Cleveland, Georgia #74
59) Cleveland (Huntington): S Richie Grant, UCF #27 Grant is tall, athletic, versatile player who can play both FS or SS and even nickel if necessary, though likely slots as aFS. A productive ball hawk, high motor player, and energetic tackler, the Senior Bowl star Grant has the makings to be a fan favorite in Cleveland for years to come.
60) New Orleans (Misery): WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss #8
61) Buffalo (Antrob): IDL Levi Onwuzurike, Washington #95 One of the more glossed over storylines of the Bills 2020 season was their defensive regression. They lost a lot of talent in their front 7 to FA. This pick attempts to replenish the young talent in that area. Levi is quickly becoming a big riser in the draft as more people familiarize themselves w/ his 2019 film. He's a really talented defensive lineman who has the ability to develop into a potential every down force. He has a matured frame and plays with an explosiveness that jumps off on tape. In addition to his physical tools, he is also pretty advanced from a technical perspective as well, as he knows how to use his hands and understands the importance of filling space and occupying gaps. To me, in a relatively weak IDL class, he's one of the few prospects who could become something worth noting at the next level, mainly due to how well rounded he is. His natural athleticism, burst, quickness and get-off coupled with his technical refinements (hands, leverage, body control) give me confidence that he can effect the QB consistently in the passing game. Whereas his strength, quickness, instincts, length and leverage make me optimistic he can be good against the run in time as well.
62) Green Bay (herb): WR Amon-Ra St Brown, USC #8
TRADE: New England gives 2.31 (63), Philadelphia gives 3.06 (70), 4.09 (113), 2022 PHI 5th 63) Philadelphia (Salty): CB Eric Stokes, Georgia #27 I originally had the 70th overall pick in the draft, but I had not addressed one of the Eagles biggest needs yet in the draft; Cornerback. The Eagles have struggled with that position, and it has been a weak point of their defense the past few years. Greg Newsome II went a few picks before and I was getting worried that there wouldn't be a quality Corner available at my pick. Because of this fear, I traded up to pick 63. Admittedly, I overpaid. I gave up pick 70, the 4th round pick I got from the Broncos trade back, as well as a 2022 5th for pick 63, to the Patriots. This was an overpay, yet one with a reason, as it was used to secure a good Corner for the team. Eric Stokes is a good Corner prospect who can be a day 1 starter who develops into a impact player for the Eagles. He is on the taller side at 6'1", and can play both man and zone well. He has some ball skill issues and you might see him not making some easy interceptions at the next level and can clean his technique up some, but hes a good prospect that is a bit of a steal at the end of the second round. With Stokes on the team the secondary will improve and might finally have some promise.
64) Kansas City (teutonic): LB Chazz Surratt, UNC #21 A converted QB, Surratt is another very toolsy player for the chiefs. I like the speed he plays with and he fits the mold of the 'modern' LB. He has a lot of work to do still but I think with the right coaching he can realize his potential. 65) Jacksonville (Gmoney): CB Shaun Wade, Ohio St #24
66) NY Jets (stackingdollars): CB Elijah Moldin, Washington #3 Jets lack CB depth and arguably their best CB, Brian Poole, is a FA this year. Molden has great instincts, but is a little undersized, and can play ideally as a nickel CB. He thrives in zone coverage and is solid in run support. Molden can be a starter from day 1 and grow into the Saleh defensive system.
67) Houston (Kdelgado): T Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma St #73
68) Atlanta (jorjor): EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami #2 The falcons suck at edge and Quincy Roche is my favorite edge rusher available.
69) Cincinnati (Sliz): IDL Jay Tufele, USC #78 With Geno Atkins aging out a bit, and a potential cap casualty either this year or next, it was hard to pass on the top rated player on my board by a large margin (second time a USC player has slipped to my range). Tufele is a dominant player at the 3T with versatility to take snaps along the interior as needed. He offers value on all 3 downs, and gives a stud to slot in beside DJ Reader longterm. With the run on CBs and Edge players prior to our pick, Bengals take another pick to build the trenches.
70) New England (rgoing): IOL Quinn Meinerz, UW-Whitewater #77 Senior Bowl standout Quinn Meinerz gets selected, not many know about Wisconsin Whitewater since it is a D3 school. Meinerz impressed and dominated at the Senior Bowl, some scouts had him rising into the top 100 even the top 50 for best available players. Questions always rise when drafting a player at a lower level, I think the Senior Bowl eliminated any of those speculations for Mr. Meinerz. The Patriots love the value they have received with their pick!
71) Denver (paxton): LB Charles Snowden, Virginia #11 I was scared the patriots would pick him. Really good fit for their...ahem….organizational philosophy. Anyways, Maybe this is a bit of a reach, but it’s impossible for me to pass on Snowden. You can't teach his physical tools. A 6’7 defender who can play all over the front 7, paired with Vic Fangio? This is a bit of a risk, but its at a position of need for the Broncos and I believe his tools, ceiling and football IQ make it a risk worth taking.
72) Detroit (Zingy): S Jevon Holland, Oregon #8
73) Miami (tolgzz): WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma St #2 Miami selects WR Tylan Wallace to add yet another weapon for their QB they decided to stick with Tua. Tylan they feel slipped to their laps in this draft and believe he cant be a very solid weapon with good upside that has been overshadowed by an elite WR class.
74) Washington (klondike): CB Aaron Robinson, UCF #31
75) Dallas (spencerw): CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse #23 I go defense for the third time in as many picks, I was hoping for an OT (not big on Radnunz) but none really fell the way I wanted, this is the second CB drafted but I see Ifeatu excelling way more as a S in the next level, this fills another hole Day 1 IMO and cleans up the secondary.
TRADE: NY Giants give 3.12 (76), New England gives 3.31 (95), 4.15 (120) 76) New England (rgoing): WR D'Wayne Eskridge, W Michigan #1 Patriots selected speedy receiver D’Wayne Eskridge out Western Michigan University. There were many questions why the Patriots waited to take a receiver until the 76th pick in the draft, Eskridge was the reason why! The former track star runs a (4.3 – 4.4) 40yd, putting him up as one of the fastest WR in the draft. There were a bunch of questions about the low level competition in the MAC, but D’Wayne showed he can go up against some of the best at the Senior Bowl this year. The idea is that D’Wayne can come in and be a starter day 1 on special teams returning kicks as well as a slot receiver.
77) voided
78) LA Chargers (run1609): T Dillon Radunz, NDSU #73 Was ecstatic to see Radunz at this pick. Has been training with the recently-retired Joe Staley all year and it showed at the Senior Bowl last week, where he was named OL of the week by his peers. The Chargers have no long-term pieces at OT and a ROTY that needs protecting. Radunz fits the bill perfectly.
79) Minnesota (beezus): S Hamsah Nasirildeen, FSU #23
80) Minnesota (beezus): IOL Josh Myers, Ohio St #71 At the top of the third round, the Vikings had 4 players they were targeting: jay tufele, Jevon Holland, Dillon radunz, and hamsah nasirildeen. Three of the four were gone by the time our picks came around, three out of the four were gone (whoever took Dillon radunz is a stupid dumb idiot head). After taking nasirildeen at 79, it came down to Myers and walker little. The Vikings ultimately went with Myers at 80, shying away from Little’s injury history. Myers offers a strong run blocking profile coming out of the gate, but is admittedly a work in progress in the pass game. Regardless, an upgrade over Dakota “turnstyle” dozier was needed, and Myers should be a day one improvement.
81) Las Vegas (jmah): S Paris Ford, Pitt #12 I searched Paris Ford on YouTube and he has a highlight vid with almost a million views. That’s a steal in the 3rd round.
82) Miami (tolgzz): IDL Tyler Shelvin, LSU #72 The Pick is In. Dolphins select IDL Tyler Shelvin, LSU. Miami adds a true nose tackle in Shelvin adding to their DL to help stop against the run. With Miami's plan to rotate DL Shelvin will be in during running downs where the Dolphins lack run stoppers on the DL.
83) Washington (klondike): RB Demetric Felton, UCLA #10
84) Carolina (cantstopthis): T Walker Little, Stanford #72 Little is a high upside prospect who has the potential to be one of the better tackles in this draft. With great size and length, Little is able to eliminate defenders from the play. He also has solid athleticism and can play in multiple schemes. With the Panthers oline being up in the air right now, it was important to take a guy who could protect Fields blindside.
TRADE: Indianapolis gives 3.21 (85), Cleveland gives 3.28 (92), 6.27 (212) 85) Cleveland (Huntington): S Keith Taylor, Washington #27 Taylor is a tall cornerback who isn’t afraid to tackle ball carriers or receivers. A senior, he’s athletic and has experience playing both man and zone coverage. Can stay with most receivers but will get burnt by speedsters one on one. Lack of any collegiate interceptions is concerning, but his size and coverage skills will earn him a role in any NFL secondary.
87) NY Jets (stackingdollars): LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan #44 The Jets LB group has a few question marks. CJ Mosley has pretty much had 2 years off from football, Neville Hewitt is a free agent, and Blake Cashman can’t stay healthy. McGrone can be a three down LB adding some depth and becoming a starter.
88) Pittsburgh (Fireblast): IOL Deonte Brown, Alabama #65 An absolutely huge frame at 6'4 350lbs, I believe Brown can be a solid Guard in the nfl, his size means that he can be a force both in pass and run blocking, and I think overall he can be a big peice of that aging O-line, perhaps replacing one of their current guards within the next year or 2.
89) San Francisco (Anc): EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt #10 Niners get good value here as Odeyingbo falls to them at 89. With a number of players departing in FA or victims of potential cuts across the DL, SF targets a versatile player who lined up both as a 3T and on the EDGE productively. Odeyingbo has great length which he knows how to use to his advantage to control his opponents, and has a high ceiling as a pass rusher. He has a strong club move and uses his athleticism to quickly close out on QBs once he gets free. Needs work to refine his pass rush attack, as the most common reps involve him relying on his length and burst. Against the run he has a lot of work to do, especially on the interior where his subpar pad level can get him blown up too often. Does do a good job at setting the edge. Overall, Odeyingbo is something of a project which isn't the best fit for the Niner's timeline but we didn't want to pass on good value at a position group of need.
90) Cleveland (Huntington): WR Dyami Brown, UNC #2 Tall, vertical receiver who had a highly productive collegiate career. Athletic with a great burst, he can get down the field and go after deep balls. An energetic blocker and able ball carrier, he’s a potential 3 down WR if he works on his release and route tree. Can contribute immediately and has starting WR potential.
91) Arizona (Brodie): CB Shakur Brown, Michigan St #29
92) Indianapolis (Viddstuff): WR Marlon Williams, UCF #6 With questions surrounding TY Hilton’s return, I decided to take a WR who could fill in in case TY leaves. While not a traditional slot Wr, Williams provides skill over the middle as a big slot wr, and will be a good target for any QB. He should get snaps early as a rookie.
93) Cleveland (Huntington): LB Jabril Cox, LSU #19 Tall, agile LB with superb coverage skills. A natural 4-3 OLB who fits the Browns scheme very well. Has the ability to cover TE or RB and has tremendous range and motor. Needs to learn how to take on and disengage blocks, but has the makings of a 3 down OLB who can do it all. 94) Buffalo (Antrob): T Spencer Brown, N Iowa #76 After having a really good season Daryl Williams is set to hit FA. I think the Bills should prioritize re-signing him, but even at his best I wouldn't view him as a long term solution at RT. Spencer Brown is an interesting prospect who's recently gotten more attention after having a really nice week at the Senior Bowl. Standing at 6'8" he offers unique length and size at the Tackle position. He also has good mobility and a light, nimble lower half in which he still has the opportunity to fill out to really solidify his anchor which is already pretty decent. He plays with the 'mean streak' that you always want to see out of your OL. And as a small school guy, dominated his competition which you always want to see, which he parlayed into solidifying himself as a guy in the Senior Bowl against legitimate rushers. The hope would be that he and Dion Dawkins can be the anchors on the Bills edges in regards to protecting Josh Allen and opening up running lanes for Najee Harris for the next decade.
95) NY Giants (rubbersoul): EDGE Hamilcar Rashed, Oregon St #9
96) Kansas City (teutonic): EDGE Payton Turner, Houston #98 Turner is another player with an ideal frame that is raw. He is a big edge player with some positional versatility that should be able to take over for Kpassgnon. 97) Tampa Bay (EFS): IOL Aaron Banks, Notre Dame #69 At 6'6", 330 lbs, Aaron Banks is a dependable, well-rounded, G who also has some experience playing at T. He's a smart player who frequently reaches the second level and neutralizes oncoming defenders. In Tampa Bay, he'll serve as a backup to Ali Marpet and serve as a welcome depth piece.
98) LA Chargers (run1609): LB Baron Browning, Ohio St #5
99) New Orleans (Misery): CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina #24
100) Dallas (spencerw): TE Brevin Jordan, Miami #9 I went with a piece I think can be utilized anywhere on the field besides wideout, he lined up all over the place at miami and was used a lot in pass/run blocking and route running, I wanted to go OT at some point but the board never really fell the way I wanted to so I decided to go with a high utility weapon for them to use
101) Tennessee: WR Seth Williams, Auburn #18
102) LA Rams (prime): EDGE Joshua Kaindoh, FSU #13 Floyd and Ebukam are free agents in 2021, and given the Rams’ relatively poor standing with the salary cap, it may make sense to try to get edge rushers early in the draft. Kaindoh fits the athletic mold of Floyd, and he has the length to give tackles fits whilst he develops his pass-rush arsenal over the next couple seasons.
103) San Francisco (Anc): CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford #11
TRADE: LA Rams gives 3.39 (103), Minnesota gives 4.14 (119), 6.15 (201) 104) Minnesota (beezus): IDL Tommy Togiai, Ohio St #72 tommy togaia profiles as a player who can offer year one upside as a run defender at the three tech with potential to develop as a pass rusher. This past year he logged 24 pressures and three sacks for the Buckeyes, and could continue to grow as a pass rusher under the tutelage of MN’s exceptional defensive coaching
1st Round 1. JAC - Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Clemson Do I need to say more? The unanimous top prospect in the draft goes to Urban Meyer and the Jags. They get their guy at QB and spend their cap and draft picks surrounding him with elite pieces to get the most out of him while he is on his rookie contract. 2. NYJ – Justin Fields(QB) - Ohio State If Fields were to go to the Jets, he would be the second top-three overall pick New York has used on a quarterback in three seasons. Back in 2018, Gang Green used its No. 3 overall pick to draft Sam Darnold of USC. He was seen as the closest thing to a can’t-miss prospect in his draft class. Three years later, only clipboard holder Josh Rosen is a worse first-round quarterback. 3. Miami - Devonta Smith (WR) - Alabama The Dolphins were playing with house money during their playoff push this season. With another Texans pick to add to their young roster, they can afford to swing big. They have an obvious hole at edge-rusher and wide receiver, and taking a blocker would also be completely understandable. The obvious link for Miami will be with DeVonta Smith. The Heisman winner tore up opponents throughout 2020, and his chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa from their time in Tuscaloosa together is undeniable. Smith is older than Ja'Marr Chase, but Miami may lean towards the hot name and comfort he'll bring Tua. 4. San Francisco – Zach Wilson (QB) - BYU SF trade 1.12, 2.44, 4. 114, 2022 First, 2022 third According to NBC Sports Bay Area “By simply cutting Garoppolo would generate $24.1 million in cap space with $2.8 million in dead money next season. For a team currently projected to have just over $23.2 million, a slew of pending free agents needing to be re-signed and long-term, lucrative extensions eventually on the table for up-and-coming players like linebacker Fred Warner and EDGE Nick Bosa, taking advantage of this team-friendly out makes a lot of sense.” With that said, a team like the Bears, Colts, or WFT would make sense to pick up Jimmy G. With that said, in order to keep the team together, they trade up and take the electric Zach Wilson. 5. CIN - Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon Sewell is listed at 6-6, 330 pounds. He became the first Oregon player to win the Outland Trophy last season, which is given to college football's top offensive lineman. He didn't allow a sack in 926 snaps last season. 6. PHI – Ja’Marr Chase (WR) LSU While there is not much to get excited about with this team, they do have the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, putting them in a position to add a legitimate impact player to the mix. Expect the Eagles to target either a cornerback or wide receiver with this pick and they have a couple of worthy options at both positions. 7. DET – Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State Micah Parsons is an elite prospect that’ll be a 3-down LB on any NFL roster. As a 6-foot-3, 241-pound defensive end, Parsons amassed 41.5 sacks and 64.5 tackles for loss over a three-year span. He also supplemented those figures with 245 total tackles, five forced fumbles, two interceptions, and four passes defended. 8. CAR – Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech I'd consider a quarterback here if Wilson or Fields were available. However, Rasul Douglas is clearly the weakest link in a young, up-and-coming defense. Farley is a physical press corner with elite athleticism and size (6-foot-2, 197 pounds) who also opted out due to COVID. 9. DEN – Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU The Broncos should absolutely swing the bat here because Drew Lock has proven that he is not the long-term guy. Lock has appeared in 18 games in his two-year NFL career and has come away with the league’s third-worst passing grade over that span (61.8). No quarterback has thrown a higher rate of uncatchable passes than Lock (28%) on throws beyond the line of scrimmage since 2019. It’s time for a new era. 10. DAL – Patrick Surtain II(CB) - Alabama Surtain has the tools to be a solid corner back in the league. He sits at 6-foot-2, 203 lbs which put him as a dream come true for defenses. His size and frame make him one of the best corner backs in the draft alone. Surtain is also one of the most physical corner backs in this year’s draft. His hands-on defense in coverage is something that teams love to see. If the Cowboys can grab Surtain, they would be in luck because Surtain won’t make anything easy for receivers. 11. NYG - Kwity Paye (DE) - Michigan As a stand-up outside linebacker, Paye’s impressive first step softened angles, and he was able to bend around the edge. On the interior, his explosiveness was turned into power with strong hands to stun the interior lineman. Paye even illustrated a newfound bull rush by converting his speed to power. Paye’s chop-rip and club-rip moves came in handy as he beat NFL prospect Daniel Faalele around the edge a few times. Paye, Gayle notes, has “the fourth-best PFF pass-rush win rate (26%) of any Power 5 edge defender in the country,” which certainly makes him intriguing 12. Atlanta - Joseph Ossai (EDGE) - Texas Ossai is at his best when he lines up on the edge and simply attacks the quarterback. He shows an impressive combination of quickness and power on the edge and does a great job of getting low and turning the corner quickly. Ossai is an exciting edge rusher but has also done a great job of handling off-ball linebacker duties for Texas. Ossai will likely primarily play on the edge at the next level, but it is nice to see him show this versatility. Simply put, he is a tough and talented football player who always seems to find his way to the ball. Ossai should be a first-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft and undoubtedly has a high ceiling at the next level. 13. LAC – Christian Darrisaw (OT) - Virginia Tech This off-season the chargers need a major upgrade in their offensive line. They have a young QB and it’s almost a miracle that nothing serious happened to him. Enter Christian Darrisaw, his footwork is some of the smoothest in the class. In the open field, Darrisaw moves and climbs to the second level with ease and efficiency. Darrisaw immediately slides in at left tackle as a long-term upgrade over Trey Pipkins. Just from a purely schematic standpoint, Darrisaw fits better into a zone-run scheme. His movement ability and experience with the Hokies lends itself to that. It is exciting when you realize that Darrisaw still has room to grow in his frame. Technically, his hand placement is sporadic and inconsistent. However, the physical tools are there, and Darrisaw has only improved in his years as a starter. This is an easy pick for the Chargers. 14. MINN – Greg Rousseau (EDGE) - Miami He’ll likely have a direct path to starting right away opposite Hunter, but the Vikings won’t hand the job to him without competition from Ifeadi Odenigbo and D.J. Wonnum, especially given his development profile. A lot of the burden will fall on whoever wins the job to be effective enough to free up space for Hunter — especially without a clear starter on the interior — and that might fall on Rousseau whether or not he’s fully improved as an edge rusher. 15. NE – Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama If one thing was evident in 2020, is that the Patriots were suffering from the departure of Brady and Gronk. They led the league in the most opt-outs and have most of their defensive players back,a better situation than many teams. However they need to address a receiver bad. Stylistically, Waddle is my favorite receiver in the draft — the speed is shocking. It shouldn’t be legal to average 11.2 yards after the catch per reception, as Waddle did over the past two years at Alabama. 16. ARI – Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida The Cardinals would have a hard time passing on Pitts if he’s available with the No. 16 pick. Cardinals tight end Dan Arnold had just 31 receptions for 448 yards. A standout tight end would hasten the development of quarterback Kyler Murray. Getting Murray and the offense more weapons is important especially when you consider that the Arizona Cardinals offense took a step back in 2020. 17. LV – Christian Barmore (IDL) - Alabama The Raiders had options here with Christian Barmore and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah all available. However, their need for an interior presence far outweighs a cornerback or linebackesafety hybrid. The Raiders have invested a lot in their defense, both with draft capital and free agency spending. They only seem like a few pieces away from a playoff-level defense, and Barmore puts them that much closer. Barmore has been the best defender in the country over the last few weeks, wreaking havoc on any opponent. Similar to former Alabama first-rounder Da’Ron Payne, Barmore saved his best play for the brightest lights. In the college football postseason, he registered 10 total tackles, three for loss, and two sacks. 18. Miami – Rashawn Slater (OT/G)- Northwestern Rashawn Slater has been a wall at Northwestern in 2019, allowing only five pressures on 355 passing block snaps. He opted out of the 2020 season due to Covid-19, but he is still regarded as a high-value prospect and could be a potential left tackle of the future. 19. WFT – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - Norte Dame They’re already stacked on the defensive line, and their secondary is elite. He would be an amazing value here and would help fill Washington’s only real need on defense. Adding him could make the defense truly elite. 20. CHI –Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas The Bears snuck into the playoffs and saved the jobs of Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy and, probably, Mitchell Trubisky. Since Chicago won't find a long-term answer at quarterback here, the Bears address their offensive line which was a big issue in 2020. Cosmi really shines in pass protection, using his athleticism and length to consistently shine in this area. He is a high IQ player who understands his responsibilities and will not be fooled by stunts and unique blitz packages. Cosmi also uses his quickness well to recover against speed when needed. His ability to sink in and anchor against power also stands out as a solid skill pass protection skill. 21. IND – Mac Jones (QB) - Alabama Fresh off of leading Alabama to a National Championship, Mac Jones can step in and be the next quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. Jones isn’t going to wow anyone with his arm strength, athleticism or overall physical tools. Having said that, the Crimson Tide standout and Heisman finalist thrived for Alabama thanks to his ability to anticipate his pass-catchers getting open and with an extremely accurate deep ball, perhaps the best in the 2021 NFL Draft class. 22. Tenn - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE) - Georgia By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. The Titans recorded a respectable 43 sacks during the 2019-20 season, and tried to take a huge step forward in that department by throwing money at Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney on one-year deals. Both signings blew up in their faces and the Titans recorded a depressing 19 sacks this past year, less than half of what they totaled the season before. Only Cincinnati and Jacksonville posted less sacks than the Titans, and both of those teams are picking in the top five. It’s safe to say that addressing the pass rush is priority No. 1 this offseason. 23. NYJ via SEA – Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina One thing that was for certain in 2020 is that the New York Jets secondary was going to get scorched game after game. Adam Gase, Gregg Williams and the New York Jets organization often had a lot of young, inexperienced players getting the majority of the snaps in the defensive backfield, and it showed. 24. PITT – Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama The Steelers are in a tough spot in 2021. Alejandro Villanueva, Zach Banner, Jerald Hawkins and Derwin Gray are all free agents next offseason. The Steelers need to get an elite left tackle prospect in this draft is possible. Leatherwood is another quick and aggressive offensive lineman who is at his best when he is asked to play forward and attack. Because of this, he typically shines in the run game, firing off of the ball and attacking with impressive power at the point of attack. However, his aggressiveness does get him in trouble in pass protection at times, as crafty pass rushers will take advantage of his mistimed and inaccurate punches. 25. JAC via LAR – Carlos Besham JR. (EDGE) - Wake Forest Having selected Trevor Lawrence, Urban Meyer knows the next step to winning is domination in the trenches. Besham Jr. is an elite EDGE that dominated college football this year. Look for Besham Jr. to be one of the combine’ top talked about. Basham has a relatively high floor, courtesy of his size, length, and football IQ. He’s a balanced defender whose density and natural leverage brings good utility both as a pass rusher and a run defender. Specifically as a run defender, Basham can be hard to move. He has gap integrity, and he shows flashes of power necessary to clear open lanes and stuff runners. His motor also runs hot consistently, which allows him to make some plays in pursuit. 26. CLE – Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa If there is one word to describe Collins, it is versatile. Collins is at his best when he is asked to do many different things; it can be dropping back into coverage, blitzing or stuffing the run. Collins has great size, can play downhill, and is able to move from sideline to sideline pretty quick. In a division where you play Lamar Jackson twice a year, these qualities in a linebacker come at a premium. 27. BAL – Creed Humphrey (Center) Oklahoma Bad snaps and poor pass protection both reared their heads again in the loss to Buffalo, and the return of Ronnie Stanley isn’t going to fix the issues on the interior offensive line. Creed Humphrey is the best center in this draft, hails from Ravens draft hotspot Oklahoma, and along with a healthy Stanley, will make Lamar Jackson’s much easier in 2021. 28. NO – Nick Bolton (LB) - Missouri “The Saints could use a talent like Bolton, as inside linebacker is perhaps the only question mark on their stout defense. He plays fast and has great instincts in coverage, compiling 95 tackles this season. Sliding him in at the second level would help keep New Orleans’ run defense strong.” 29. TB – Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa Defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh and edge rusher Shaq Barrett are both set to become free agents when the 2020 season is over, while the Bucs are on a cap space crunch and may not be able to keep both guys. Heck, they may not even be able to keep one of them, unless Suh becomes cheaper given his age. In return, the bucs get cheaper with the selection of Nixon. Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon projects as a prototypical 3T even front defender at the next level. Nixon has very good spring and burst out of his stance to shoot gaps and create havoc in the backfield. In a class that is sorely lacking in potential splash defenders along the defensive interior, Nixon may well be a prospect that is in high demand this April. Enjoying a booming season in 2020, Nixon burst onto the scene as an NFL draft prospect after a relatively quiet redshirt sophomore season with the Hawkeyes in 2019. A JUCO transfer, Nixon is a third-year Hawkeye who has left a significant mark on the 2020 season against every team he crossed. Nixon has good length, violent and urgent hands, and the athletic ability to parlay his strong season into a starting role at the NFL level; although he may require some patience to reach that same level of impact as he’s only now starting to put it all together in the college ranks. This is a high ceiling prospect, but I wouldn’t consider him anything close to a finished product yet. 30. BUF – Alijah Vera Tucker (IOL) - USC One of the Bills' few flaws has been guard play, and Vera-Tucker would surely help with that. The USC lineman started at left guard in 2019 and was among the best in the country in pass protection, posting an 87.9 pass-blocking grade after allowing just seven pressures on 590 pass-blocking snaps. 31. GB - Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia Eric Stokes has been phenomenal this year. Proving week in and week out that he can be successful against some of the most talented receivers in the country. Jaire Alexander is tremendous, but the cornerback depth outside of Alexander is poor. Eric Stokes should be able to immediately step into a starting role on the outside for the Packers. He doesn’t have elite athleticism, but it isn’t poor by any means. His technique shines through when watching his tape, and hopefully that translates well for the Packers. 32. KC – Wyatt Davis (OG)- Ohio State At 6-foot-4, 315 pounds, Davis is an athletic specimen who possesses unmatched length for an interior lineman. This is paired with smooth feet that naturally glide from block to block whilst delivering crushing blocks. Davis operated in a zone-blocking scheme at Ohio State but showed every bit of athleticism necessary to operate as a pulling guard in a man-blocking scheme. Davis’ smooth movement from block to block in a zone-scheme also directly translates into his physical dominance as a pulling guard in a man scheme. Combining Davis’ size with such fluid movement makes him a bulldozer down the inside or a pancake-producer on the edge against smaller edge defenders. Even coming out of his stance, Davis is a quick-mover who uses a strong initial lunge to engage and establish leverage over the man across from him.
It has been a long two weeks since the college football season ended. Thankfully, the wait is almost over! The 2021 Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama begins in earnest on Monday as players are measured and welcomed to the weeklong festivities. As Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy always says, “the draft starts in Mobile,” and never is that more true than in 2021. With so much of the normal scouting cycle truncated or adjusted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this is one of the few chances scouts will get to evaluate some of the top talent leading up to the 2021 NFL draft. And I mean top talent. The rosters are jam packed with recognizable names and small school stars. First thing is first, if you want to watch all the action unfold this week, now would be a good time to make sure you have NFL Network or ESPN/ESPNU. Practices will be televised and covered on both networks throughout the week in the build up to the game. The actual Senior Bowl game is on Saturday, January 30 and will air on NFL Network. The practice week might even be more important than the game itself. Just ask Javon Kinlaw, who suited up for one day of practice last year, dominated the competition, then withdrew from participation. Practice starts on Tuesday and will be led by the Dolphins’ and Panthers’ coaching staffs. This is a huge opportunity for Brian Flores and Matt Rhule to get to know the players on their respective rosters, especially when you consider that the combine and individual workouts are not happening as they would in normal years. Miami has the No. 3 and No. 18 picks in the first round, while Carolina holds the eighth overall selection. Needless to say, these are teams with premium picks in this upcoming draft. 73 different schools are represented among the 110 players invited to participate. This is a star-studded list as well. Let’s start with the guys you probably already know. Stars of the show Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama – Yup, the Heisman winner is going to be in Mobile. Don’t get your hopes up too high though. This is likely just to meet with the coaches and measure in. He is still not medically cleared after suffering an injury in the national championship game. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama – Smith’s star quarterback will be here as well. He will get a chance to wow scouts outside the loaded Alabama offense and prove he is more than a system quarterback. There is some first round buzz around him, but the general opinion on Jones is very split. This week could go a long way in swaying the scouting community one way or the other. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama – Let’s round out the Alabama three-headed monster with Najee Harris. Harris is a bruising back with good hands. If he can show enough speed during these practice days, he could solidify himself as the top back in the class. Kyle Trask, QB, Florida – Another Heisman finalist joins the crew. Trask will have a chance to answer questions about his arm strength and mobility. With Carolina in the market for a quarterback of the future, the chance to impress Rhule and his staff is huge. Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State – He entered the national championship game on a tear before exiting early with an injury. Unclear how healthy he is going to be heading into the week. He is a name to watch after a dominant finish to the season. Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida – A huge part of Florida’s offensive resurgence this season, Toney is a fun playmaker to watch in space. With his name already hovering around the first round, a big week could lock him in as a Day 1 pick. Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma – With the injury to Landon Dickerson, Humphrey has a chance to earn the mantle of best center in this class. He was rock solid at Oklahoma and should be one of the top interior linemen selected. Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame – Eichenburg is one of the top offensive tackles in Mobile for the week. He was great protecting at Ian Book’s blindside throughout the season. In my opinion, he is one of the more polished prospects in this class, but his upside is limited by a lack of elite athleticism. Ian Book, QB, Notre Dame – Speaking of Ian Book, he might not be highly regarded as a quarterback prospect this year, but he will draw a lot of attention after leading Notre Dame to the College Football Playoff. He is not one of the top prospects in this class, but he is a name a lot of people already know. Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama – Arguably the top lineman who accepted an invite, Leatherwood is an interesting player to watch. He has played all over the line at Alabama. Where coaches line him up this week could be very telling. Carlos Basham, DL, Wake Forest – Let’s get over to the defensive side of the ball. Basham enters as one of the top defenders participating on many draft boards. He will have a chance to feast in the one-on-one drills. He was dominant in his time at Wake Forest. Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami – The former Temple standout impressed in his one season at Miami. The list of edge rushers is fairly short, so Roche will have a chance to stand out. He still feels like a work in progress despite being a grad transfer. Richard LeCounte III, S, Georgia – After a great career at Georgia, LeCounte will have a chance to follow in the long line of Bulldogs defenders who have gone early in the NFL draft. It is a deep safety class and this week will give him a chance to separate from the pack. Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pittsburgh – One of the top pass rushers in the country each of the past two years, Jones will have a chance to show off his speed. Teams are desperate for pass rushers this year. I could see him sneaking into the top half of the first round if he has a big enough week. This edge rusher class is still wide open. Small school stars who could shine Without a doubt, these rosters are loaded with talent. And those are just some of the big-name players that will feature prominently in practice this week. One of the great things about the Senior Bowl though is the chance for small school stars to jump off the page and send their draft stock soaring. Recent examples include Kyle Dugger from Lenoir Rhyne and Jeremy Chinn from Southern Illinois. Here are some of the best unheralded standouts that could be big risers by the end of the week. Tarron Jackson, EDGE, Coastal Carolina – Coastal Carolina was obviously the Cinderella story of the 2020 college football season, but the Chanticleers still didn’t get the respect they deserved. He had a strong statistical year and will get a chance to make a bigger name for himself in Mobile. Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State – You’ve probably heard this one already. Radunz was getting some first-round buzz before the start of the 2020 season. We haven’t seen him play this year because he opted out after the FCS moved its season to the spring. Needless to say, huge week for him. Spencer Brown, OT, UNI – I don’t think he has gotten the same hype as Radunz, but he probably should. Brown is a mammoth. He is listed at 6’9″, 320 lbs and reported benches 500 lbs. That should speak for itself. Prepare for some scouts to fall in love with Brown similar to how they did last year with Mekhi Becton. D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan – If you are looking for a big-play threat, Eskridge might be the guy for you. He averaged 23.3 yards per reception this season and scored eight touchdowns for the Broncos. His size is a concern, but he will get a chance to show he belongs with the top prospects. Robert Jones, G, Middle Tennessee State – One of the top offensive linemen in Conference USA, was one of the bright spots in a tough season for the Blue Raiders. He has the size to impress coaches this week. Without a ton of high profile interior linemen in this year’s class, this is a massive opportunity for Jones. Christian Uphoff, S, Illinois – Hard not to pick a fellow safety from an FCS school in Illinois after what Jeremy Chinn did last year. More of a traditional safety than Chinn, who was built like a hybrid linebacker, Uphoff has not played since 2019 due to the pandemic. For every FCS star, this week is crucial as they get their first reps in a long time. Riley Cole, LB, South Alabama – Cole was one of the top tacklers in the country in 2020. He led the Jaguars with 96 stops, including 54 solo tackles. He is a bit undersized, but coaches could be willing to overlook that given his productivity. Quintin Morris, TE, Bowling Green – It was a terrible season for Bowling Green. Morris now gets a chance to showcase his talent outside of the team’s dysfunctional offense. He has the build to be a productive move tight end in the right system. Who needs a big week? Senior Bowl week is important for all of the players looking to improve their draft stock. However, there are a few that really need a strong week to bolster their standing among their peers. Here are the players under the most pressure to perform. Jamie Newman, QB, Georgia/Wake Forest – Newman transferred after an exciting season with Wake Forest. He never took a snap for Georgia. With a ton of question marks, Newman needs to produce some answers in Mobile. Will he look sharp after months of preparation or rusty after not playing a game in over a year? At the same time, there is a clear drop off in this quarterback class after the top four prospects. A strong week could position Newman as one of the top mid-round options at the position. Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State – Wilson was generating first-round consideration last year before deciding to return to school. It turned out to be a poor decision. The season was tough for everyone, but Wilson had a new coaching staff take over and then had a public dispute with his new coach before the year even began. He checks all the physical boxes, so if he can show that potential we all saw on film in 2019, he could salvage his draft stock. Tuf Borland, LB, Ohio State – Unfortunately for Borland, the last thing a lot of people are going to remember about his college career is him getting toasted by DeVonta Smith on a terrible mismatch. He has to work to erase that image and give scouts something else to talk about. Perhaps this is a bit unfair, but as the saying goes, you are only as good as your last game. Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest – Surratt was a late addition to the Senior Bowl roster, but a good one. He tore up the ACC in 2019 before going down with an injury. He then opted out of the 2020 season, which means the last snaps we saw him play came over 14 months ago. That’s a long time to be out of the eye of scouts and coaches. He has a chance to be one of the best receivers suited up this week. Jacoby Stevens, LB/S, LSU – Stevens was a top recruit out of high school, but has definitely not parlayed that into immense draft buzz. Given his size and success in the box, I will be curious to see if coaches want to work him out as a linebacker. This could be a massive week in determining how NFL teams view him as a prospect. Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech – As it seems to be every year, this running back class is deep. Herbert was a human highlight reel this season for the Hokies. He needs to prove that he can sustain this success though. He spent the first four years of his college career at Kansas and came nowhere close to reaching the heights he did in 2020. A limited resume as a pass catcher could hurt his stock as well. If he shows off some soft hands in drills and scrimmages, we could see Herbert come off the board some time on Day 2. If not, he has an uphill climb heading into the rest of the draft process. Breakout candidates Every year, there are a few players who arrive from notable schools who maybe did not get the best chance to showcase their skill set in their college system. Van Jefferson showed off some incredible route running last year that we had not seen at Florida. Josh Uche flashed tons of speed that boosted his draft stock. So did Troy Pride Jr., who would run routes for the opposing receiver at times. Those three went to major schools, Florida, Michigan and Notre Dame, but didn’t really start to earn more draft buzz until the Senior Bowl. Here are some candidates that could do the same this year. Michael Carter, RB, UNC – The lightning to Javonte Williams’ thunder, Carter actually led the Tar Heels in rushing, but took a back seat to Williams, who finished the year with 22 touchdowns. Carter will get a chance to remind scouts that he is more than just a change of pace back and can be relied on at the next level. Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina – After spending two years behind Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards, Smith got his turn as the top receiver. South Carolina might have had a rough year, but Smith actually played pretty well in his go-to playmaker role. I think he has a chance to shine and move himself into the Day 2 conversation. Nico Collins, WR, Michigan – After opting out of the 2020 season, Collins has a chance to reassert himself in the wide receiver conversation. He has the size to turn heads and it will be really fun to see him compete in one-on-one drills. He will benefit from some better quarterback play than what he has dealt with at Michigan, too. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma – For teams looking for a powerful back, Stevenson should be on their radar. He returned from a drug suspension in late October and looked great in the Sooners’ final six games, including a 186-yard performance against Florida. James Wiggins, S, Cincinnati – Wiggins had an interesting career at Cincinnati. He tore his ACL before the 2019 season after a fantastic 2018 showing. Injuries again slowed him down the stretch of 2020. If he is fully healthy, this will be a great opportunity to remind scouts of his athleticism. Jabril Cox, LB, LSU – The former North Dakota State standout tried to help LSU pick up the pieces after losing so much talent from 2019’s national title team. Cox has great size and speed for the position. I think he got lost in the focus on LSU’s offensive struggles, but he could really make a statement in what feels like a wide-open linebacker class. Desmond Fitzpatrick, WR, Louisville – He might not be as much of a household name as his teammate Tutu Atwell, but Fitzpatrick is a big-play threat in his own right. He showed flashes during the 2020 season. I think he will have the physical tools to win one-on-one matchups and turn some heads. Richie Grant, S, UCF – Grant has a nose for the football and a talent for making big plays. He turned in a great 2020 campaign and has a chance to build off that in Mobile. This is a deep safety class, so Grant needs to stand out. Hunter Long, TE, Boston College – Long took a big step in his development in 2020, doubling his yardage per game and hauling in more than five passes per contest. He has ideal size for the position and could wow in a solid tight end group competing in Mobile. Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss – While Long is more your typical possession receiver, Yeboah is the big-play threat. He averaged closed to 20 yards per reception in 2020. Despite that, he can still be a factor in the red zone. He has the size and speed combo to be a mismatch for defenders. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State – Hill made waves in the offseason for sparking meaningful change in Mississippi State. After threatening to boycott the season, the state agreed to remove its current flag, which featured the symbol of the Confederacy, and design a new one. Unfortunately, Hill did end up missing most of the 2020 season anyway. He only appeared in three games, totally just 15 carries. He has plenty of previous experience to lean on and impressively tallied 23 catches in those three games as well. If he can continue to flash that pass catching ability, he will be rising up draft board. Despite my best efforts, I cannot break down every player attending this year’s Senior Bowl. Hopefully, this will give you a pretty good introduction to this year’s rosters. Let me know if there someone you are keeping a close eye on that I didn't cover here. As always, you can check out the full list of attendees on the Senior Bowl website. It is time to officially get draft season underway. Happy scouting! https://aftermathsports.com/2021/01/23/2021-senior-bowl-preview-mac-jones-kyle-trask-headline-players-to-watch-sleepers/
With Arthur Smith likely gone and a gaping hole in the middle of the defense this year, I've done a lot of digging on guys who I think would make successful coordinators in this team. I've done the leg-work so you don't have to. J-Rob, if you're out there, take notes (jk I'm amateur af). Offensive Coordinators
Mike McDaniel: SF RCG 17-present, ATL OA 15-16, CLE WR 14, WAS WR 13, WAS OA 11-12
Why He Works: Obviously Mike is going to come in and keep playing to the strengths of this team. He's helped Shanahan execute his run-first, play-action, bootleg heavy offense that's made him so consistently successful the last few years. He's been able to turn out productive rushers that you wouldn't think like Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, etc. Still, he has experience across the offense having been a WR coach and OA at several different places. I'd bet on him to have a good idea on how to marry the run and the pass.
Why He Doesn't: If you wanted to use what I consider his strengths against him, he's only been a run-game coordinator. Never an OC or PCG, and under Shanny's thumb in SF. He's bounced around a lot (though at every stop he's been with Kyle Shanahan). He's only 37; he isn't the youngest OC in the league, but he's not a seasoned vet either.
Shane Waldron: LAR PCG 18-present, LAR TE 17, WAS OQC 16, UMass OL 14-15
Why He Works: Waldron is extremely similar to McDaniel in many ways, just pass-oriented instead of the run. He's spent the last 3 years deputizing McVay in running the show with the Rams pass game, a team that got solid results out of a so-so QB in Jared Goff especially in 18, but this year as well. The Rams have had a very successful, balanced offense with him there. Similar to McDaniel, he has experience learning under a prodigious HC talent and has coached TEs, OL (college), and been a QC. That wealth of experience is so huge in translating to being an OC.
Why He Doesn't: Similar but opposite reasons to McDaniel. He's worked under a HC that is very hands-on, so we don't know how much he really does. His top level experience has only been in the last 4 seasons, and he's very young (41). Even if he's successful in helping Tannehill be successful, the lack of experience in the run game could be a red flag.
Phil Longo: UNC OC/QB 19-present, Miss OC/QB 17-18, SHSU OC/QB 14-16, Slippery Rock OC/QB/WR 11-13
Why He Works: Phil Longo is one of the hottest names in college football. As good as Litrell as been at UNT, he's done it at the P5 level against solid ACC competition (5th nationally). He's got experience across the board, particularly at OC, QB, and WR positions. He led North Carolina to having PFFs two highest graded RBs this year, and potentially from nowhere to both be Day 2 picks (Michael Carter, Javontae Williams). And on top of that, has brought a contender out of left field in Sam Howell to be the odds-on favorite for #1 pick in the NFL draft next year at QB. He's blown away the competition at every level and could be ready for the next step.
Why He Doesn't: He's only a college coach. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. But it's a different game entirely. And though he's sufficiently experienced overall, he doesn't have direct connections with the run game in his coaching history. That's something he could potentially mitigate with the right hire, though.
Seth Littrell: N Texas HC 16-present, UNC AHC/OC/TE 14-15, IU OC/FB/TE 12-13, UArizona OC/RB/TE 09-11
Why He Works: Littrell may not pass the eye test on first glance, but he's a current college HC with a ton of experience. Similar to the other two, he has worked with a litany of positions but in his case, he's worked with all and ran the show. He runs one of the most explosive and balanced offenses (8th nationally) in college football and has been in coaching for a long time. His offenses are elite but his defenses are horrible, but we don't need him on defense. His poor record as a HC (31-31) likely has him on the hot seat, and I could see him jumping ship for the right opportunity.
Why He Doesn't: First and foremost, he's a college coach. And on top of that, he's a college coach of a G5 team. He has no NFL experience. As mentioned, he has had a poor record as a HC. He doesn't have many red flags, but the ones he has are pretty substantial and generally a barrier in the NFL.
Why He Works: There can be no claim that this man isn't experienced. He's a literal SB winning HC who has had a ton of success until the last two years. You can potentially parlay his faults into questionable roster-building tactics by GM Howie Roseman. As both a coach and coordinator, he's seen success with churning sub-par RB and QB talent into wins for the most part. He's had his clear moments of genius, no question. Everybody knows the skinny on this guy.
Why He Doesn't: I won't belabor the point. Everyone knows. Carson Wentz has clearly regressed. Many claim that he's lost without Reich. His receiver cupboard has been bare, but also looked horrible. He's plenty old enough, but with a successful season likely gets scooped up instantly. Some could say that he's had plenty of his own input on his roster, and they've failed. They got worse each year following the SB. You guys get it.
Defensive Coordinators
Jim Leonhard: Wisc DC 17-present, Wisc DB 16
Why He Works: Pure. Dominance. Wisconsin has for years been the most lights out defense in CFB. Though the numbers long were attributed to conservative offensive playstyle, they persisted even through the Dairy Raid experiment this year. 1st ranked nationally in CFB. Has gotten incredible performance out of so-so athletes from TJ Watt (he's a higher end athlete), Zack Baun, Chris Orr, etc. Finds guys and puts them in the best position to win every rep. Has experience with DBs and is a former one himself in the NFL despite being originally a walk-on. Tough minded, physical player and comes through in his coaching. Has helped produced elite defenses and top 10 teams despite pretty poor recruiting, historically.
Why He Doesn't: College. That's really the only reason. He's a little young, he's only been coaching for 5 years. But it's basically just that he doesn't have NFL experience.
Phil Parker: Iowa DC/DB 12-present, Iowa DB 99-11, Toledo DB 88-99
Why He Works: I mean first, holy experience Batman. He's been at the same place for 22 years and only 2 places for 32. Talk about stability. Still, he's helped coach Kirk Ferentz vastly outkick their coverage and produce phenomenal defenses and NFL players despite relatively poor recruiting for decades. Coached Iowa to the 13th best defense nationally this year. Coach of Amani Hooker and Desmond King as well getting insane production out of lesser talents in Josh Jackson, Greg Mabin, Josey Jewell, AJ Epenesa. I could seriously go on and on. An incredible coach who understands positional football.
Why He Doesn't: He's played a ton of zone in Iowa and I'm not sure how much he knows or believes in man. You have to do that in the NFL. Has only coached college. Is a little on the older side, but not nearly close to retiring I wouldn't think. Has been on staff for some recent tumultuous stuff with players there, but haven't seen his name specifically mentioned. But yea, mostly college.
Karl Dunbar: PIT DL 18-present, Bama DL 16-17, BUF DL 15, NYJ DL 12-14, MIN DL 06-11
Why He Works: Karl Dunbar has been wildly successful at one thing more than just about anybody around: dominating at the line of scrimmage. He's had plenty of talent to work with but he's helped the 3rd best defense in football account for 56 sacks this year, highest in the league. He's a seasoned veteran who's been with many successful franchise the last several years.
Why He Doesn't: As incredible as some of his DLs have been, that's all he knows. He's never stepped outside of that purview in his long career. That's really his only red flag, but it's a big one. He would be a hire where it would be very critical to make the right moves for LB and DB coaches.
Larry Foote: TB OLB 19-present, ARI LB 15-16, ARI Asst LB 14
Why He Works: A young star in the making who has shot up the ranks in the last few years. Joining forces with the incredible defensive mind in Todd Bowles, he's been instrumental in reviving the TB pass rush from the dead helping coach Shaq Barrett into the NFL's sack leader in '19. TB had the 6th highest rated defense (surprising but true) and were 6th in sacks. A very successful former player, he's likely to command a big presence in the locker room. Joined PIT only a couple years after Vrabel left and they're surely familiar.
Why He Doesn't: He's young (40) and relatively inexperienced. It's good that he's at least coached the ILBs but he's not branched out much. Relatively unknown as a defensive assistant and would also likely need the right moves around him to be truly successful.
Ryan Nielsen: NO DL 17-present, NCSU DL/RGC 13-16, NIU Co-DC/DL 11-12
Why He Works: If you haven't noticed, there's a theme on my short lists. Nielsen has coached great defensive lines that have gotten to the QB. 3rd last year in sacks and 8th this year, he's worked with mid-round picks like Trey Hendrickson and great technicians in Cam Jordan to find success (i.e, can work with less "talent"). He has a little bit of experience in coordinating with NCSU and NIU but is largely a DL guy. He's helped NO to the 4th best defense in the league this year.
Why He Doesn't: More of the same. He's young and prior to NO, his experience was more college oriented. He's branched out more than the two former, but not by a lot. Would also need to bring quality hires at DB coach to get the most out.
Matt Burke: PHI DL/RCG 20, PHI DA 19, MIA DC 17-18, MIA LB 16, CIN LB 14-15, DET LB 09-13, TEN DQC 05-08
Why He Works: Just 44 years young, he's been around the block. He's coached every level of the front 7 including running the show. Has helped sustain Philadelphia's DL success including 49 sacks this season (3rd in the league). Team defense was average this year but his unit did their job. Has familiarity with the Titans organization and was part of the staff for the incredible roster we built before leaving after the great '08 season. Dartmouth educated, if that means anything.
Why He Doesn't: After at one point being considered a great up and comer, his star has faded a little. Stint in Miami didn't end up with the 3rd worst defense before he and Gase were both let go. Part of the group that mis-utilized Minkah. Will have questions around whether he's turned a corner and ready for another shake with a non-cokehead coach, or if DL is where he should be. Regardless of whether he's a DC, I see no reason he wouldn't make a phenomenal hire as a DL coach.
A deep dive. How to be consistently profitable. Worth the read (hopefully?)
- Know the smart, sharp sportsbooks. Many aren't in the United States. If you're serious about betting on sports, then, simply put, you have to know the sharp books. Who's lines can you trust? Pinnacle, 5dimes, and Betfair exchange (for most sports) are great. They take lots of volume, have very tight lines, and are very efficient. They get many, many multiples the volume of Fanduel, DraftKings, and other US sportsbooks. You can't bet on them if you are in the U.S. since they are offshore, but you look at them to determine what are good betting opportunities. If Pinnacle and other sharp books all make a game +110/-120, then you should be pretty thrilled to buy the favored team for +100 on Fanduel (as an example). A (maybe?) decent analogy - if some stock is trading $300 on major exchanges with tons of volume, and somebody says they'll sell it to you at $290, then that sounds pretty good...Arbitrage exists in sports betting, and that's fantastic. Take advantage of it. Use efficient markets to make cash off the inefficient markets of US sportsbooks. Take the profitable bets when they arise. Everything is obviously my opinion, but, hey, I have at least a little credibility in the space ;) Message me any questions you have on any of these topics as well Fanduel Profit & Loss - Again, sports betting is all about probability (law of large numbers...). In every game, there is always a price I'd buy both teams. If Was Football is currently trading +380 vs. the Bucs in major markets, I'd happily buy them +450 if I could find it on Fanduel or Barstool or whatever. I'd also happily but the Bucs -300. No team is 100% to win (lol Rams Jets). If a team is +1500, they only need to win 1/16 of times for you to break even. And, similarly, if a team is -1500, they need to win 15/16 times for you to break even. That's an important consideration for anybody parlaying favorites...Remember the relationship between implied probability and sportsbook odds. Let's say a sharp book like Pinnacle makes an NBA game -120/+110: that means that favored team is roughly (120/220+110/210)/2 to win the game. That's the breakeven odds, the fair odds, from that book. Of course, lines could be slanted, and it gets more complicated for certain wagers, but you get the point. You can also use these sharp betting sites to price "odds boosts" and other promotions. If a boost is "Lakers & Mavs" to win +290, then back out the probability the Lakers win, and the probability the Mavs win, from Pinnacle or another sharp sportsbook. Multiply the probabilities (the games are independent), then calculate the implied odds. If Mavs/Lakers parlay is trading +320, don't bet it, you're getting bad odds. If it's trading +250, bet it, it is profitable (EV per $ = 1/3.5 x 2.9 + 2.5/3.5 x -1). - My go to resource: Sportsbook review (I have 0 affiliation, some random company). No need to spend money on upgrades at all, I don't pay for anything on their platform, I just use it. They show you real time odds from sharp overseas sportsbooks so you can follow line movements. As an example, let's say the Titans pop to +140 fair odds (they're trading like +185 right now) on a variety of sharp sportsbooks, then I'll try to buy some Titans +175 on whatever US sportsbook I can before the line moves. When lines move, they are highlighted in bright red on the site which is very useful. There are tons, tons of other resources I use to pick off books and find good bets, but this is the #1 most valuable, free resource. - There's basically never a deposit bonus (or DraftKings "mission") that's not worth it. I've had play throughs of 10x for sportsbook for 50% deposit bonuses, etc. The sportsbook thinks they are making money because they're winning the vig. But not with us ;) Use sportsbookreview to find lines that look good. I have an arbitrage bot to show me all market arbs, then I'll just bet the +EV side. Pretty easy to get significant volume on any book since none of the US books are particularly good at setting & adjusting lines...Betting more volume also = higher probability of getting VIP promotions = more promotions = more money for you. - I know I've said this before in other discussions, but consider the longevity of your account. Before max betting an error on Fanduel, realize that Fanduel has limited tens of thousands of bettors at this point, and you could be next. Do you love all those dope promos and odds boosts? Would kind of suck to get $2 on them (my experience...) for one good bet. Betting errors for massive size is a sure-fire way to get limited quick. Again, I've said this before, so sorry for the repeat, but this is a critical point. $500 now is NOT worth it for an account worth thousands per month. - Use free bets and profit boosts on long shots that look good to sharp markets on Pinnacle, etc. It's mathematically optimal. Never, please never, put a free bet or profit boost on a +100 wager. - If you are arbing, realize that, overall, you're just making a ton of profitable bets and unprofitable bets to make a little bit of profit. There's always a profitable side. If you can tolerate some risk, it's more profitable to just bet the side that's good (of course) Otherwise, you're typically giving up like 3.5% to get out of your risk, and losing that profit margin. It all averages out anyways... Example: Fanduel is +190 Rockets, DraftKings -170 Mavs. Every other smart book on SportsBookReview is -210/+240. Just bet the Mavs. Who wants to buy a team +190 trading around +225? Lost profit margin. - Don't watch games you bet big on. Just frustrating when you lose. Consider your mental health. It's random - sometimes you catch a bad beat, sometimes you get lucky. Just make good bets. - Join a community of smart bettors. Spit ball bet ideas off each other. Use math and liquid lines to price wagers. There are dozens of +EV prop bets every day. Find them, just takes a bit of effort. Dang, well, a lot, a lot more to write, but will keep it there for now. Feel free to message me any questions. Just the start of US sports betting. Let me know what else is helpful. Happy to write about / share whatever. Let's make cash ladies and gents.
Dave Gettleman’s future: The case for and against the Giants general manager - The Athletic
A verdict on the future of Giants general manager Dave Gettleman shouldn’t be determined by the outcome of Sunday’s season finale. Whether ownership believes the franchise is headed in the right direction or hasn’t made enough progress, a win or loss by the 5-10 Giants against the 6-9 Cowboys shouldn’t outweigh three years of data. So, as judgment day nears for Gettleman, here’s a breakdown of what co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch have to evaluate: DRAFT As Gettleman said at the end of last season, “You build the team through the draft.” The draft is the most important piece of roster building, so that’s where any evaluation starts. The case against Gettleman: Gettleman inherited a premium asset: The No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft. The last time the Giants had the No. 2 pick, they took Lawrence Taylor in the 1981 draft. Gettleman eschewed taking a quarterback in a class that had three selected between picks three and 10. And he didn’t seriously entertain trade offers for the No. 2 pick. Gettleman was smitten with Saquon Barkley, dismissing positional value arguments against taking a running back with a top pick as “a crock” and “nonsense.” Barkley had a brilliant rookie season — and the Giants went 5-11. A high-ankle sprain caused Barkley to miss three games as the Giants went 4-12 in 2019. He has been sidelined this season since tearing his ACL in Week 2. While Barkley’s talent is undeniable, he will have played in 31 of 48 games during his first three seasons. The return on the No. 2 pick has been underwhelming thus far and Barkley is now eligible for a contract extension. There have been minimal contributions from the rest of the 2018 class. Trading second, fourth and fifth-round picks to move up seven spots to take cornerback DeAndre Baker with the 30th pick in the 2019 draft was a disaster. Setting aside whatever did or didn’t happen at a Florida house party in May — armed robbery charges were eventually dropped — Baker displayed a lack of professionalism throughout his rookie season. Gettleman has never traded back in eight drafts as a general manager. That’s baffling considering the crapshoot nature of the draft and the evidence that many of the top teams in the league constantly trade back to acquire more picks. The lack of depth on the current roster shows the value in trading back. The Giants don’t have a full allotment of picks for 2021, which is tough to swallow for a rebuilding team. They dealt their fifth- and seventh-round picks for Leonard Williams and Isaac Yiadom, respectively, while adding an extra sixth-round pick from Arizona for Markus Golden at this season’s trade deadline. The case for Gettleman: Ownership can take some solace in the fact that Gettleman avoided any colossal busts with his top picks (Baker notwithstanding). Quarterback Josh Rosen, who was a candidate for the No. 2 pick in 2018, went 10th overall and is already on his fourth team. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who many analysts rated higher than Daniel Jones, was released this week by Washington less than two years after being the No. 15 pick in the 2019 draft. Sam Darnold, who was widely viewed as the best quarterback option available for the Giants in 2018, hasn’t been as bad as Rosen or Haskins, but the Jets appear ready to make a change after three unimpressive seasons from the former No. 3 pick. Dexter Lawrence, the 17th pick in the 2019 draft, is a quality player, and this year’s class has shown some promise, but it’s too early to pass judgment on the rookies. Gettleman has found some value in the later rounds, most notably 2018 fifth-round pick Darius Slayton, who has 96 catches for 1,469 yards and 11 touchdowns in two seasons. Gettleman arrived with a reputation for finding unheralded offensive linemen, and 2018 undrafted free agent Nick Gates looks like a potential long-term answer at center. The big question: That this separate category is necessary is more of a negative than a positive for Gettleman, but the jury is still out on Jones, the sixth pick in the 2019 draft. The Giants have the No. 31 scoring offense in the league this season. That puts Gettleman in a sticky spot. Whether the problem is Jones or his supporting cast, the blame points in the same direction. Gettleman either missed on the Jones pick or has done a poor job building a sufficient supporting cast around the young quarterback. Coach Joe Judge has emphasized his commitment to Jones for 2021. That’s nice, but such proclamations aren’t necessary for truly elite quarterbacks after two seasons as the starter. Next season is shaping up as make-or-break for Jones. If Gettleman survives, his fate will be inexorably tied to Jones. FREE AGENCY There’s a popular misconception that Gettleman was hamstrung by the cap situation he inherited. There were certainly some inflated veteran contracts on the books when Gettleman took over. Yet, in his first offseason he was able to make Nate Solder the highest-paid left tackle in the league, make Odell Beckham Jr. the highest-paid wide receiver in the league, absorb Alec Ogletree’s salary in a trade, eat $15 million in dead money from the Jason Pierre-Paul trade, sign a pair of mid-level free agents, and still carry the cap hits of Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins. That’s a lot of spending for a general manager supposedly constrained by the cap. The case against Gettleman: The free-agent signings in Gettleman’s first offseason were atrocious. Solder signed a four-year, $62 million contract; guard Patrick Omameh signed a three-year, $15 million contract; linebacker Kareem Martin signed a three-year, $15 million contract; and running back Jonathan Stewart signed a two-year, $6.8 million contract despite it being evident that the 31-year-old had nothing left in the tank. All of those signings were flops. A common defense of the Solder signing is that Gettleman had no other options and he needed to upgrade the offensive line. There are always other options. Just look at the Patriots, who let Solder walk in free agency and then traded a third-round pick to the 49ers for Trent Brown and a fifth-round pick (they also got a third-round compensatory pick in 2019 for Solder). Brown counted just $1.9 million against the cap in 2018 and the Patriots didn’t miss a beat when he was plugged in at left tackle. Handing out the biggest contract to the highest-profile free agent doesn’t take any skill. It was Gettleman’s job to find an alternative to overpaying Solder and he failed. The 2019 offseason was quieter in free agency partly due to the dead money incurred from trading Beckham to Cleveland, but there was still a big whiff. Two days after dealing Beckham, Gettleman signed veteran receiver Golden Tate. It was questionable to give a four-year, $37.5 million contract to a 30-year-old slot receiver and the move has gone worse than expected. Tate was suspended for the first four games of last season for PEDs, then he was suspended for another game this season for selfish antics. Tate has been a non-factor this season and will likely be a cap casualty two years into his deal. The case for Gettleman: It wasn’t all bad for Gettleman in 2019. Signing outside linebacker Markus Golden to a one-year, $3.75 million deal proved to be excellent value, as he recorded 10 sacks last season. Mara said after last season that Gettleman’s “batting average has got to increase going forward.” Gettleman responded by batting 1.000 this offseason. The big-ticket signings were cornerback James Bradberry (three years, $43.5 million) and linebacker Blake Martinez (three years, $30.75 million). Bradberry earned his first Pro Bowl selection and established himself as one of the top corners in the league, while Martinez has been a significant upgrade as a tackling machine in the middle of the defense. Both players are only in their fifth seasons and have proven track records of durability. They will be the backbone of the defense for the duration of their contracts, if not longer. Adding veterans Logan Ryan and Graham Gano on one-year deals during training camp provided a major boost. Ryan has been a versatile piece of the secondary and a strong leader, which he parlayed into a three-year, $30 million extension. Gano has been lights out, making 30 of 31 field goals to earn a three-year, $14 million extension. TRADES Say this for Gettleman: He’s not afraid to make bold moves. In three years, he’s dealt Jason Pierre-Paul, Damon Harrison, Eli Apple, Odell Beckham Jr. and Olivier Vernon, while trading for Alec Ogletree and Leonard Williams. The case against Gettleman: There’s grey area to most of Gettleman’s trades, but the most controversial deal remains the acquisition of Williams at last season’s trade deadline. The Giants, who were 2-6 at the time, sent a 2020 third-round pick (No. 68 overall) and a 2021 fifth-round pick to the Jets for Williams, an impending free agent. It was a baffling trade the moment it was executed and became worse when the Giants weren’t able to reach an agreement on a long-term extension after the season. The Giants ceded all leverage to Williams with the trade since his camp knew the team wouldn’t let him walk after parting with two mid-round picks for eight games of service. So Williams, who had a half sack last season, happily accepted the $16.1 million franchise tag from the Giants for this season. Williams has had a breakout season, recording a career-high 8.5 sacks. So Gettleman’s evaluation of the player was accurate. But the cost to acquire and retain Williams keeps growing. The prudent move would have been to wait until Williams hit free agency and then make a strong offer. Imagine how much cheaper Williams would have been a year ago coming off the worst season of his career than he will be now. If Williams didn’t become available because another team traded for him and then extended/franchised him, that would be a tough break but it’s not as if he’s an irreplaceable player. The Giants essentially have parted with two draft picks and $16 million to have the inside track to bid against other teams to give Williams $20 million per year on a long-term deal this offseason. That’s not exactly a master class in asset management. The Ogletree trade was on par with the Solder signing as far as blowing resources on a disappointing, overpaid veteran. The Giants got Ogletree and a seventh-round pick from the Rams in exchange for fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2018 draft. The Giants inherited Ogletree’s bloated contract and cut him after two dismal seasons. Trading Pierre-Paul for a third-round pick would have made sense if Gettleman was committed to a full rebuild in 2018. Instead, the trade just created a pass rushing hole that still hasn’t been filled, while Pierre-Paul has 30.5 sacks in three seasons with the Buccaneers. The case for Gettleman: The Beckham trade was Gettleman’s other blockbuster, and that deal looks much better today than when it was executed. Beckham hasn’t been the same player in Cleveland, and he tore his ACL in Week 7 of this season. There has been some promise shown in the return from that deal, with Lawrence and veteran safety Jabrill Peppers emerging as key pieces of an improving defense. Unloading Vernon’s contract for steady guard Kevin Zeitler was a solid move in a deal connected to the Beckham trade. A case can be made that the Giants would have received more for Harrison if they dealt him in the 2018 offseason, but getting a fifth-round pick at the trade deadline still proved to be decent value since the aging defensive tackle’s skills have deteriorated rapidly. The same timing critique of the Apple trade applies, but it’s understandable that Gettleman wanted to give the 2016 first-round pick a clean slate. When it became clear that Apple was a lost cause, the Giants got fourth- and seventh-round picks for him from the Saints at the 2018 trade deadline. Apple is out of the league just two years later. COACH The reality is Gettleman can’t be judged too harshly or favorably on the coaching hires. He has a voice in the process, but he’s not the one making the final decision on the head coach. The case against Gettleman: The first coach hired on Gettleman’s watch, Pat Shurmur, was fired after two seasons. The case for Gettleman: The second coach hired on Gettleman’s watch, Joe Judge, has shown significant potential. Despite a gruff image, Gettleman’s history demonstrates a collaborative relationship with his coaches. Just look at all of the acquisitions in his first two offseasons who had ties to former defensive coordinator James Bettcher from his time in Arizona. That has continued with the new staff, as most free agent signings had a connection to Judge or an assistant coach. All indications are that Gettleman and Judge have a good working relationship. Judge spoke this week of the “one vision” throughout the team facility and said he enjoyed working with Gettleman through free agency and the draft. Compatibility with Judge could be the strongest point in Gettleman’s favor since the organization is fully invested in the coach’s vision. OVERALL ROSTER-BUILDING There’s no denying that Gettleman, who has spent 34 years as an NFL evaluator, has an eye for talent. The questions surround his ability to fit that talent evaluation into the big-picture process of building a team with the finite resources available in a salary cap/draft system. The case against Gettleman: Some of the defenses of Gettleman’s tenure are remarkably contradictory. It’s often noted that he inherited a bad roster (rarely do fired GMs leave behind Super Bowl contenders). The state of the roster can be debated, but the reality is Gettleman assessed that group and took a win-now approach in his first offseason. There’s a theory that hasn’t been proven or refuted that ownership mandated one last run with Eli Manning. Even if that’s the case, ownership didn’t force Gettleman to add the likes of Solder, Ogletree, Omameh and Martin in that ill-fated attempt to win with Manning. With that handicap dismissed, the biggest flaws with Gettleman’s tenure have been a general disregard for positional value and questionable asset management. Taking a running back with the second pick (and therefore being positioned to give a monster extension to a running back) is difficult to reconcile in the face of mountains of evidence that the position is just not as valuable as others. Pouring premium resources into interior defensive linemen and neglecting edge rushers is another dubious approach. The Williams trade, the refusal to trade back in the draft, not seriously entertaining bids for the No. 2 pick and not shopping the Beckham offer to other teams are among the many head-scratching asset management moves. The case for Gettleman: Gettleman has demonstrated his scouting ability. He recognized that Williams had a higher ceiling than he was displaying with the Jets. He stuck with Gates to allow the undrafted free agent to blossom into a starting center. Insisting on Peppers’ inclusion in the Beckham trade has paid off now that the safety is in the right system. The challenge in making a case for Gettleman in this category is that even by his stated old-school “basic truths” of building a roster — run the ball, stop the run, rush the passer — he’s fallen short in assembling a team that excels in those areas. THE FUTURE Mara and Tisch need to have a hard conversation about the state of their franchise. Tom Coughlin, the head coach for the Giants’ two most recent Super Bowls, was fired in 2015 after consecutive 6-10 seasons. Coughlin didn’t have fewer than six wins in any of his 12 seasons with the Giants. Jerry Reese, the general manager for the Giants’ two most recent Super Bowls, survived the consecutive 6-10 seasons, rebounded with an 11-5 season in 2016 and then was fired after a 2-10 start to the 2017 season. The 2017 season was the only time in Reese’s 11 years as general manager that the Giants won fewer than six games. Meanwhile, Gettleman needs a victory Sunday just to achieve his first six-win season. The Giants are 14-33 under Gettleman. Among the seven general managers hired in 2017 or 2018, Gettleman’s .298 winning percentage is by far the worst. Marty Hurney, who replaced Gettleman with the Panthers in 2017, had the next lowest winning percentage (.435) among that group. Hurney was fired last week. If ownership decides to keep Gettleman, who turns 70 in February, they’ll be doing so based on a conviction that the franchise is headed in the right direction despite a lack of any tangible progress in his first three seasons.
Alvin Kamara: 5+ receptions, 44+ receiving yards Latavius Murray: 8+ carries, 35+ rushing yards Darren Waller: 5+ receptions, 41+ receiving yards Total Odds: +1150 You could tack on a Kamara or Murray TD if you want but I felt these odds were PLENTY good enough already. This may be the biggest steal I've ever had, kamara is likely to be heavily involved in the pass game with Michael Thomas out. Latavius Murray may see more running due to this, and even if not he had 15 carries for 48 yards last game against a far better Buccaneers run defense. Expect Darren Waller to reach those marks easily as Carr's prime target (led team in routes run and receptions last week) against a weak Saints secondary. I missed a +900 4 leg parlay yesterday by FOUR yards on CMC which would have hit had he not got injured. Hope I can heal my wounds here. Edit: sorry this is on bovada, I'm doubling down you bunch of damn degens Edit 2: you can also lower Kamara to 34+ receiving yards for +825 if you'd like to be a bit safer Final Pre-Game edit: keep in mind this is still a 6 leg parlay and not to empty your bankroll into it. Do your own research and make sure you like what you're doing, don't just listen to some random stranger on the internet. BOL to everyone. One more edit to anyone still trying to make this bet: to get the same odds now (7:00 pm EST) please refer to this comment for the new stats needed
End of first half edit:
Waller - 5 rec, 54 yards (CASHED) Murray - 3 carries, 14 yards (5 carries, 21 yards needed), expecting Murray to get more carries in second half with fresher legs than Kamara. Kamara - 2 receptions, 23 yards (3 receptions, 21 yards needed) This is gonna be a nail biter boys
Edit - KAMARA CASHED
Latavius Murray still needs 5 carries and 21 yards. These holding calls are killing this drive and allowing for no run. I did not bank on the saint playing from behind Saints D pls
End of 4th quarter edit
No change, kamara and Waller both covered, but the Saints D look like they gave up after the first 20 minutes. Not a great outlook :/ Literally a broken tackle every single play. Saints can't get someone down at FC. EDIT: FUMBLE!!!! WE HAVE FUCKING LIFE LETS GOOOOOOO HUGGEEEEE Edit: well, not looking great unfortunately. It was a great ride everyone and I'll post one of these again next week, more likely I'll take players from a bunch of different games Sunday. I am sorry to disappoint today. We may have lost the battle but we will not lose the war. This was a lot of fun and I'd be happy to make a discord to follow one like this every so often is people wanted. edit Hey maybe Latavius will get some garbage time carries Meme Thanks for nothing Jenkins
Final Edit
Wild ride boys. Never imagined the Saints playing from behind like that and their defense getting absolutely steamrolled. Definitely gonna start doing more of these as it was a lot of fun, let's just all remember to keep low bets on these things and we can have some fun. Remember that we only need around 1 out of every 10 of these types of picks to break even as well. I'll make a discord for live discussion next time too, and I'll put up my pick history for this nfl season Here's the discord link for anyone that wants to discuss the next pick to be made. I'll post it in this sub with the next pick as well. Maybe it was never about the bet, maybe it was about the friends we made along the way
For those wondering about cashing out early on a parlay...
There’s only one rational way to look at these. Numbers are made up, but here’s an Example: you put up a six team NFL parlay. In the afternoon, you hit on all of the first five! You’re excited. Your $10 parlay is just ONE SUNDAY NIGHT WIN away from $1000. STOP. 🛑 Now your site (FanDuel typically) is giving you an offer - $600 to cash out now. (But oh man, just one more win and I could almost double it!!) Here’s where rational thought needs to come in play. You have an offer to walk away with $600. This means all of the rest of the parlay is useless. The past is the past (almost the opposite of a sunk cost). You now have one choice: Risk $600 for a total return of $1000. That’s -150 odds. All else equal, if that $600 was in your pocket, would you bet it all on that Sunday night bet at -150? Or would you maybe only bet $50 instead of 12x as much? If so, pull the money and run. Too many people get wrapped up in the hype. Just ask yourself if you would make that one incremental bet with the cash out option. If you wouldn’t (at least not at that size), then take the cash out and run. If you would? LET IT ROLL. Edit: a few of you need to quit the “you’re not long enough” gatekeeping you’ve got going on. Some people just bet for fun. $1, $10, $10,000. Doesn’t matter. Not everyone is doing so many parlays they need to work the numbers and compare odds at different sites. They picked some spots they thought would win and when that $10 they tossed out the window all of a sudden becomes “real” at $500, it’s great. There’s a new iPad. Or a weekend trip somewhere. Whatever. It’s the thought process at that point and time that matters and this provides a little something to think about it. We all know cash out is only offered because the house WANTS you to take it. Just chill and let people make their own choices.
Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
MAC's Sports & Stock Picks - "RedAlertWagers.com is sad to announce Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman has passed away due to COVID-19 complications, this is a sorrowful day for the Vegas betting community and all of us at RedAlertWagers.com - Services will be held at YOUR MOMS HOUSE!!! Get out of here, MAC is alive and well and picking games that will pop your bookies wallet harder than a nun's cherry in a apple orchard: $7.00 GETS COMPLETE ACCESS to ALL MAC's Action from Sports to Stocks!" Exclusive access to MAC Attack Red Alert Picks, Top Rated Release Plays, Stock Pick Alerts, and Volcano Alerts + MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, Investing Interests, Stock Watch-lists, and Charts. MAC has built a solid Corona Pandemic Portfolio filled with the hottest, safest, and most importantly " LUCRATIVE" money makers available on the market. Join Now - Members will get all of MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, and hedged moves. The market is prime for the pickens and MAC has allocated his time and resources to taking advantage of the recent crash, seeking investment opportunities that will make that corona cash Daily reports Hot Picks Options Plays Watch Lists Cryptocurrency Moves and More. 20 X $50 PARLAY FREE BETS - Only at InterTops.eu Disclaimer: RedAlertWagers.com nor Roland McGuillaman are professional financial analysts or experienced investors. The information shown in this tier is mainly collected from publicly accessible sources on the Internet. We try our best to make sure the information is correct, we are not allowed and therefor cannot guarantee all of info/opinions are 100% accurate or reliable. "Do not take this as trading advice, all information, content, and postings are meant for entertainment and learning purposes"
Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!
There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.
The MGM Grand has been Roland's favorite book for the last few years, and his good friends atLiquor Worldacross the street on E. Tropicana have treated MAC well over the years, sponsoring the annual Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Baseball Pick'em Tournament in the city of sin consecutively for over a decade! MAC has been moving and shaking in Vegas for a long time and has been comped plenty of rooms, plenty of extra services, but this trip is strictly betting business - Members will also receive all MAC's Red Alert Premium Plays + All Special Release Picks & MAC's Stock Moves and Alerts -Join Here
They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!
Let’s talk about how to bet a specific sport. You can talk about what techniques you use, your process, and what information you use to make your bets. We can also talk about overall concepts.
For instance I’ve had tons of success betting nfl and some success in mlb. However even though basketball is my favorite sport I don’t ever have success betting it. It is infuriating, especially because I believe my process and bets are good. So are there any successful NBA betters who could explain their process? I am going to try to explain how I go about choosing bets and my process in finding good nfl bets. Maybe we can all help each other. It might be a bit lengthy to explain so bear with me. For NFL, I believe you can gain a lot of insight by watching the games and that is the number one requisite for making good game picks. I also think you should write down your picks/ideas for next week right after the previous week. That way all that you watched is fresh in your mind and you aren’t swayed by what you hear during the week. I believe there is a lot of value in statistics but that they are more beneficial to player props, team scores, and those types of bets rather than game spreads. I also put a lot of value in the game flow for each team in accordance with the game total. By game flow I mean when a team gets up big they usually start to run the ball a lot more and teams that are down start to pass. Also in a high scoring game with lots of possesions players can accumulate a lot more stats. This is by no means infallible but I have found to be very helpful The best way to explain this process might be in an example analysis for a game. Prior to last nights game I knew from watching both teams that buffalo has an elite offense and an elite defense that has gotten much better but can be susceptible to the run. I knew the patriot’s defense was bad especially their run defense. I also knew the patriots offense was inept especially when passing. So from an eye test I knew bills were the bet and I used an alternate spread of -6.5 to avoid the key number 7. It didn’t matter but this is something I usually do. I also bet bills ML as one leg of a two leg alternate spread/teaser parlay. I wasn’t sure about the overall total however I did bet under patriots team total and under 2.5 total TDs. I did this because of eye test and game flow I talked about earlier. I suspected bills would be up and patriots would need to pass in the second half to score which they would be unable to do. This was a great scenario to bet because the bills pass defense is their strength and patriots pass offense is their weakness. There can be a lot less variation in strength against weakness. So keeping in mind that the eye test of pats run defense is bad, they are 27th in opponents rushing yards, and bills should be playing ahead I bet over on singletarys rushing yards and over moss’s rush yards. Figuring at least one would hit covering my money and probably both. I shopped around on 3 books to make sure I got the best lines for each which mattered because singletarys varied and only went over by 1.5 yards which it would have been under on the other. I also bet under cam newton longest pass 30.5 yards and under Cam newton fantasy points because of pats bad pass offense and bills good pass defense. I did this based on the eye test, the fact that buffalos pass defense is ranked 8th and patriots pass offense is near the bottom. Again weakness against strength with game flow helping. I was thinking about over michels rush yards cause bills run defense isn’t good and rush offense is pats strength but due to the game flow I decided not. He did end up hitting but most of his yards came in the first quarter. Now this is a game where I was right about most aspects, however there are days where I am completely wrong about it all and lose every bet but today it worked out. All games aren’t clear like this in terms of strength verse weakness, this was just a great example game. To summarize, for NFL You want to watch games, eye test can provide a lot of insight. Also check box scores after, see who got what stats then think about why. Know the strengths and weakness of the team you are betting on based on their statistics. I used to use DVOA but now it costs money to see so I use per game stats. Also think about the game flow and how that might work in your favor or against you. I would also suggest being disciplined in games you pick. Find a few games a week you really like a team or some weeks don’t even bet at all. Or find a player prop you like and don’t bet the total. I believe player props and fantasy pt totals are much easier to bet because they get less action making their lines less sharp. I believe nfl lines are usually very accurate so often bet 2 leg teasers. I never bet big parlays. I also find certain trends over time, such as a good defensive team with average offense against a good offensive team with bad defense where the spread is negligible youll want to take the good defensive team. Examples include colts verse Houston first matchup and dolphins verse raiders this past week. This all comes from experience which you need. Whenever you are making a bet, you should also be able to explain to a sports beginner why it is a smart bet. Also don’t bet big after a good day/week, you should bet small or even take a break after having a good day. Confidence isn’t your friend, just as being on tilt or emotional is your worst enemy. I also suggest switching up bets after you are successful, if you pick 5 nfl games right habit will tell you that you can pick more game winners. Chances are you won’t and should find other bets whether its totals or props. This is my view point at least, I get caught up making the same type of bet even though it’s not great because I have had prior success with it. If anyone has any questions about how to bet nfl I can try to answer. As for my nba struggles. On Sunday warriors played bulls, two teams top 5 in pace. I was going to bet the over cause of this but didn’t trust two bad teams. A bet that looked great was over 6.5 curry assists. He had 10 assits in his first game in 30 mins where his team only scored 99 pts in a blowout. In his second game he had 6 assists in 29 minutes where his team only scored 99 in a blowout. So in a high scoring game that should be close curry should get 35 minutes and contribute at least 7 of his teams average 20+ assists. I did think about going with over curry points but went with his assists. He ended up with 36 pts and 6 assists. I believe I had great value here. Another bet was over harell 16.5 pts in the lakers verse timberwolves game. Anthony davis out so I figured more scoring opportunities for Harrell in a game where lakers should get 115-120+. Again I thought of betting over lakers total but didn’t. He ended up with 12 pts in 20 minutes because lakers blew them out so badly that everyone scored and he didn’t get his usual minutes. I think these bets were both great value but both didn’t happen. It seems like there is so much variance in the nba. In nfl there is one or two reasons why a bet wouldn’t hit. In nba everything can go exactly as you thought and it still doesn’t hit. So is nba just difficult to bet cause anything can happen? Does anyone have any good tips or a good process on how to bet?
Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
MAC's Sports & Stock Picks - "RedAlertWagers.com is sad to announce Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman has passed away due to COVID-19 complications, this is a sorrowful day for the Vegas betting community and all of us at RedAlertWagers.com - Services will be held at YOUR MOMS HOUSE!!! Get out of here, MAC is alive and well and picking games that will pop your bookies wallet harder than a nun's cherry in a apple orchard: $7.00 GETS COMPLETE ACCESS to ALL MAC's Action from Sports to Stocks!" Exclusive access to MAC Attack Red Alert Picks, Top Rated Release Plays, Stock Pick Alerts, and Volcano Alerts + MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, Investing Interests, Stock Watch-lists, and Charts. MAC has built a solid Corona Pandemic Portfolio filled with the hottest, safest, and most importantly " LUCRATIVE" money makers available on the market. Join Now - Members will get all of MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, and hedged moves. The market is prime for the pickens and MAC has allocated his time and resources to taking advantage of the recent crash, seeking investment opportunities that will make that corona cash Daily reports Hot Picks Options Plays Watch Lists Cryptocurrency Moves and More. 20 X $50 PARLAY FREE BETS - Only at InterTops.eu Disclaimer: RedAlertWagers.com nor Roland McGuillaman are professional financial analysts or experienced investors. The information shown in this tier is mainly collected from publicly accessible sources on the Internet. We try our best to make sure the information is correct, we are not allowed and therefor cannot guarantee all of info/opinions are 100% accurate or reliable. "Do not take this as trading advice, all information, content, and postings are meant for entertainment and learning purposes"
Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!
There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.
The MGM Grand has been Roland's favorite book for the last few years, and his good friends atLiquor Worldacross the street on E. Tropicana have treated MAC well over the years, sponsoring the annual Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Baseball Pick'em Tournament in the city of sin consecutively for over a decade! MAC has been moving and shaking in Vegas for a long time and has been comped plenty of rooms, plenty of extra services, but this trip is strictly betting business - Members will also receive all MAC's Red Alert Premium Plays + All Special Release Picks & MAC's Stock Moves and Alerts -Join Here
They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!
Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service
MAC's Sports & Stock Picks - "RedAlertWagers.com is sad to announce Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman has passed away due to COVID-19 complications, this is a sorrowful day for the Vegas betting community and all of us at RedAlertWagers.com - Services will be held at YOUR MOMS HOUSE!!! Get out of here, MAC is alive and well and picking games that will pop your bookies wallet harder than a nun's cherry in a apple orchard: $7.00 GETS COMPLETE ACCESS to ALL MAC's Action from Sports to Stocks!" Exclusive access to MAC Attack Red Alert Picks, Top Rated Release Plays, Stock Pick Alerts, and Volcano Alerts + MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, Investing Interests, Stock Watch-lists, and Charts. MAC has built a solid Corona Pandemic Portfolio filled with the hottest, safest, and most importantly " LUCRATIVE" money makers available on the market. Join Now - Members will get all of MAC's resources and reports on playable companies, profitable option moves, and hedged moves. The market is prime for the pickens and MAC has allocated his time and resources to taking advantage of the recent crash, seeking investment opportunities that will make that corona cash Daily reports Hot Picks Options Plays Watch Lists Cryptocurrency Moves and More. 20 X $50 PARLAY FREE BETS - Only at InterTops.eu Disclaimer: RedAlertWagers.com nor Roland McGuillaman are professional financial analysts or experienced investors. The information shown in this tier is mainly collected from publicly accessible sources on the Internet. We try our best to make sure the information is correct, we are not allowed and therefor cannot guarantee all of info/opinions are 100% accurate or reliable. "Do not take this as trading advice, all information, content, and postings are meant for entertainment and learning purposes"
Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!
There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.
The MGM Grand has been Roland's favorite book for the last few years, and his good friends atLiquor Worldacross the street on E. Tropicana have treated MAC well over the years, sponsoring the annual Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Baseball Pick'em Tournament in the city of sin consecutively for over a decade! MAC has been moving and shaking in Vegas for a long time and has been comped plenty of rooms, plenty of extra services, but this trip is strictly betting business - Members will also receive all MAC's Red Alert Premium Plays + All Special Release Picks & MAC's Stock Moves and Alerts -Join Here
They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!
Often arbitrage opportunities over 10% profit are either an apparent mistake by the sportsbook or a match far out in the future. In both cases placing bets on the opportunity may tip sportsbooks off that you may be arbing.
Don’t use unsafe links from betting arbitrage websites.
When coming from a betting arbitrage site, make sure not to click any unsafe links to a sportsbook. If a sportsbook notices you coming from an arbitrage website, it is pretty obvious what you’re trying to do. If you use links from an arbitrage website to a sportsbook, make sure they are safe non-referring links.
Avoid betting on weird markets.
It’s best to stick to the most popular sports. In the U.S., this would be football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. Placing bets on obscure events like Korean ping pong is going to seem strange to the sportsbooks.
Open both sportsbook websites side by side to reduce the time placing bets.
As arbing opportunities don’t always last an extended amount of time, it is important to place your bets as quickly and as accurately as possible. Pulling up two tabs to each sportsbook and quickly double-checking the match and the odds will ensure you don’t make any mistakes that will cost you.
Round your arbitrage bets depending on your bet size.
When stakes are calculated for arbitrage bets, technically to obtain the full profit possible, the bets would be made to the nearest penny. Ordinary bettors are not placing bets down to the penny. Depending on the size of your bankroll, you will want to hedge your bets to the nearest $1, $5, $10, $50, etc.
Start with small stakes.
Until you figure out the process that works best for you, it is best to start with small stakes. This way, while you are figuring out the best way for you to place bets or the strategy you are pursuing, you can do so without making mistakes.
Double-check the odds are the same.
Odds can change very fast. In some cases, faster than your arbitrage software can pick it up. Before placing your arbitrage bets, make sure that the odds from your research or arbitrage service match up with those on the sportsbooks’ websites.
Double-check that you are betting on the correct event.
Think about matches that are within the same division. For example, in the NFL, each team in the same division will play each other twice. Make sure the date, game, and odds match up on the sportsbooks and the arbitrage service. This way you can be sure that you are placing the bets on the correct match and not one featuring the same teams in the future.
Place “mug bets” occasionally.
A “mug bet” is basically a dummy bet to break up arbitrage bets. By placing these mug bets, it may appear that you are simply an average bettor that gets lucky sometimes. When placing these mug bets, only use 1-2% of your bankroll. Please don’t get carried away with mug bets, or they may eat away at your bankroll.
Limit deposits and withdrawals on sportsbook websites.
Arbitrage bettors need to move around their funds often to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as they arise. To minimize the need to withdraw and deposit funds, stick to a lower number of bookmakers.
Place an occasional parlay.
According to a UNLV Center for Gaming Research study from 1992 to 2019, Nevada sportsbooks won $0.30 for every $1 placed on parlays compared to just $0.05 for $1 spent on regular bets. Many beginner bettors bet with their hearts and not their heads when it comes to placing parlay bets. They hear stories like “Man turns $300 to $85,000 on eight-leg parlay”. If you don’t know what a parlay is, it’s basically multiple bets wrapped into one. If one of the bets loses, then the entire parlay is lost. To win the parlay, all of the individual bets must be won within the parlay. These bets have high payouts for a reason; not many people win. By placing the occasional parlay, you can look more like one of these beginner bettors. Just don’t get carried away!
Keep track of your winnings to compare performance at different sportsbooks.
One of the best ways to stay under the radar with sportsbooks and understand your performance is to keep track of your bets. Create a spreadsheet grouping the bets by sportsbook. If one sportsbook has a much higher win rate or lifetime winnings than the others, it may be time to place some mug bets or parlays to even the score.
Spread your bets around to different sportsbooks.
Following up with the track your performance tip, it is important to spread your bets around. If you have a higher number of arbitrage bets with some sportsbooks than others, try to even this out to keep a low profile.
Check stake limits to ensure you can place your arbitrage bets.
You don’t want to place bets on one sportsbook to find out that you can’t place the other half of the arb on the other sportsbook because the stake limit is too low. Ensure you know your stake limits (max bet) with each sportsbook, so you keep your bets within what’s possible when using an arbing calculator.
Avoid long term arbs.
Long term arbs that are greater than a week are usually not the best choice. The odds for these matches are more so guesses, especially when the match is far in the future. If you keep profiting off of these odds, it seems suspicious. Stick to arbs where the match occurs in less than a week.
Avoid arbitrage betting to the max bet limit.
Seeing that there are nearly risk-free profits when it comes to arbitrage betting, it makes sense to go all-in on every bet, right? Not exactly. When you win big it puts more eyes on you. When you win big over and over again, you will get noticed, and sportsbooks will limit how much you can bet. Go for about 60-75% of the max bet limit at most if you have the funds to do so.
Try and focus on smaller sportsbooks.
The more established and higher-earning the sportsbook, the better their anti-arbitrage systems are likely to be. It’s not a bad idea to try and focus on the smaller sportsbooks when possible. Regarding arbitrage betting in the U.S., there may be a period of time when arbitrage betting goes by relatively unnoticed compared to other international markets. This is due to sports betting being new in the U.S., and these new sportsbooks do not have any complex systems in place to detect betting arbitrage.
Don’t place bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear.
Placing bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear could come off as a little suspicious. The reason being regular bettors are generally not attentive enough to place bets instantly once the odds change.
Stick to 1-3 sports.
Most regular bettors and those that watch sports in general only follow 1-3 sports. If your betting on many more than three sports at a time, it may look suspicious.
Look like a typical bettor.
Overall your strategy should make you look as normal of a bettor as possible. The more you deviate outside of what you think a typical bettor would do, the higher chance of your account being noticed. Act normally, and you can arbitrage successfully while making a profit. If you are interested, you can learn more here. What I am really interested in is if you guys know of any other strategies? Anything in the thread may help others!
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